New research indicates that the weight-loss medication semaglutide, marketed under the brand names Wegovy for obesity and Ozempic for diabetes, could be produced for as little as $3 a month. This significant price reduction could potentially revolutionise access for millions of individuals suffering from obesity and diabetes in low-income nations, particularly as patents begin to expire in multiple countries.
A Global Health Challenge
Currently, over a billion individuals worldwide are affected by obesity, a figure that continues to rise, especially in lower-income regions adopting more western dietary habits and sedentary lifestyles. The World Health Organization (WHO) recognised semaglutide as an essential medicine in September 2022, highlighting its critical role in combating these health issues. However, its high cost remains a formidable barrier to access.
Recent findings from a pre-print study suggest that the injectable version of semaglutide could be manufactured at a monthly cost of approximately $3 (£2.35). In contrast, newer oral formulations might be available for around $16 monthly. Dr Andrew Hill, a pharmacologist at the University of Liverpool and one of the study’s authors, stated, “These low prices open the door to worldwide access to an essential medicine,” underscoring the importance of affordability in global health initiatives.
Patent Expiration and New Opportunities
The study also reveals that core patents for semaglutide will expire in ten countries this year, including Brazil, China, India, South Africa, Turkey, Mexico, and Canada, starting from March 21. This impending expiration paves the way for generic competition, which is crucial for bringing prices down further. Notably, the researchers identified an additional 150 countries where patents have not been filed, encompassing a large portion of Africa. Collectively, these 160 nations are home to 69% of individuals with type 2 diabetes and 84% of those living with obesity.
Prof François Venter from Witwatersrand University in Johannesburg, another author of the study, remarked, “Drugs to treat HIV, TB, malaria, and hepatitis are available in low- and middle-income countries for prices close to the cost of production, saving millions of lives. We can repeat this medical success story for semaglutide.”
Structural Challenges Remain
While the prospect of cheaper semaglutide is promising, researchers caution that simply reducing prices will not resolve the systemic issues driving obesity. Factors such as food insecurity, poverty, urbanisation, and the prevalence of unhealthy commercial food environments must be addressed. Dr Nomathemba Chandiwana, chief scientific officer at South Africa’s Desmond Tutu Health Foundation, noted that cost has been a significant barrier to access in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). She estimates that around 27% of adults globally qualify for medications like semaglutide, with the majority residing in LMICs where access remains exceedingly limited.
The critical challenge now lies in how healthcare systems will responsibly integrate these medications into broader strategies for managing obesity and diabetes. The health implications are extensive; obesity is associated with numerous serious conditions, including heart disease, diabetes, stroke, and cancer, contributing to an estimated 3.7 million deaths annually.
The Rising Diabetes Epidemic
The global diabetes crisis is alarming, with the number of affected individuals soaring from 200 million in 1990 to 830 million in 2022. The increase has been most pronounced in low- and middle-income countries. Semaglutide was first approved in the United States in 2017, where it is priced at about $200 a month, while in the UK, it costs around £120 monthly. However, patents in Britain, continental Europe, and the US remain in effect for another five years, limiting immediate access in these regions.
The research was informed by shipping records of key ingredients expected to be available in 2024 and 2025, employing established methodologies previously used to accurately predict the costs of generic medicines for diseases such as HIV, hepatitis C, and various cancers.
Why it Matters
The potential for semaglutide to be produced at a fraction of its current cost could significantly alter the landscape of obesity and diabetes treatment globally. By breaking down financial barriers, millions of individuals in resource-limited settings could gain access to life-saving medications. However, to fully realise this opportunity, a concerted effort is required to tackle the underlying causes of obesity and ensure that these treatments are integrated into comprehensive healthcare strategies.
