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In a controversial move, US President Donald Trump has temporarily lifted restrictions on Indian imports of Russian oil for a month, potentially giving a financial boost to Vladimir Putin’s regime. This decision arrives at a time when sanctions have significantly impacted Russia’s economy since its invasion of Ukraine, raising concerns about the geopolitical ramifications and the need for stronger European measures to combat the ongoing crisis.
Sanctions Eased, Tensions Rise
Last week, Trump’s administration announced a 30-day waiver on its ban, allowing India to purchase Russian oil again. This development follows a tumultuous relationship between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, particularly regarding their oil dealings with Moscow. The timing of this waiver seems strategically aimed at keeping global oil prices in check as rising costs at petrol stations threaten to erode Trump’s domestic approval ratings.
Oil revenues are essential for sustaining Putin’s government, with the country heavily reliant on these funds to support its economy. The gas sector, in contrast, generates considerably less revenue. As sanctions tighten their grip, Russia’s economic landscape is increasingly strained, revealing the vulnerabilities of its energy-dependent model.
The Impact of Sanctions
Sanctions against Russia have been rolled out gradually since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, acting like a tourniquet on the country’s economy. Recent reports indicate that the central government has resorted to obscuring its debts by transferring them to local entities. Notably, even Moscow, the heart of Russia’s wealth, has announced a 10% cut in its investment programme for the first time since the pandemic, alongside plans to reduce municipal staff by 15%.
These developments highlight the tangible effects of sanctions, which have forced Russian authorities to confront the reality of diminished public spending. The US has played a pivotal role in this sanctions regime, freezing assets of major Russian oil firms and warning foreign banks and shipping companies that they may face secondary sanctions for assisting in the transportation of Russian oil.
The Shadow Fleet and Ongoing Challenges
Despite efforts to weaken Russia’s oil supply chain, the existence of a “shadow fleet” complicates matters. With over 450 tankers reportedly operating under different flags, tracking and seizing these vessels remains a challenge. Recent operations by Belgium and France to intercept Russian tankers demonstrate the international community’s commitment to enforcing sanctions, yet such actions are infrequent.
Furthermore, Ukraine has taken matters into its own hands, reportedly targeting Russian shipping vessels in the Mediterranean. A recent incident involving the sinking of a Russian gas tanker illustrates the desperation and ingenuity of Ukraine’s military response to ongoing sanctions violations by its allies.
In addition to oil, the continued export of vehicles from major car manufacturers to Russia poses another challenge. Investigations have revealed that this trade, facilitated by Chinese intermediaries, remains robust despite sanctions. Reports indicate that nearly half of the 130,000 vehicles sold in Russia in 2025 originate from countries that have imposed sanctions, underscoring the need for a more cohesive approach to enforcement.
The Need for Stronger European Action
As global oil prices fluctuate—currently around $90 a barrel, up from $60 earlier this year—the fear of skyrocketing prices has led to hesitance in fully blocking Russian oil. The situation is further complicated by conflicts in regions like Iran, which add to the uncertainty. Trump’s decision to ease sanctions on India suggests that the US is prioritising short-term domestic concerns over a unified international stance against Russia.
Europe must respond decisively, implementing stricter sanctions on car dealers and businesses that continue to engage with Russia. The need to maintain pressure on Putin’s regime cannot be overstated; every day that sanctions loopholes remain unaddressed is a day that undermines the collective resolve to end Russia’s aggressive actions.
Why it Matters
The temporary waiver of sanctions on Russian oil imports not only threatens to embolden Putin but also highlights the fragility of international unity in the face of aggression. As the global economy grapples with the consequences of these geopolitical manoeuvres, the onus is on European leaders to take a firmer stance. A coordinated effort to close loopholes and enforce existing sanctions is essential to ensure that support for Ukraine does not wane, and that the lessons of this conflict are neither forgotten nor ignored.
