Despite the removal of authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s opposition activists remain uncertain about the country’s path forward. While the US has captured Maduro and taken control of Venezuela’s oil, it has left the former dictator’s entire cabinet in charge, claiming the regime will now operate under White House oversight.
However, repression continues unabated. Armed militias patrol the streets, searching people’s phones, and nearly 1,000 political prisoners remain behind bars. Sociologist and activist Rafael Uzcátegui describes the current situation as “Chavismo 3.0,” with Maduro’s successor Delcy Rodríguez and other key figures like congressional president Jorge Rodríguez and interior minister Diosdado Cabello firmly in control.
Many activists, including Uzcátegui, have been forced to flee Venezuela to avoid arrest or even death. The work of civil society organisations has been further undermined by the “anti-NGO law” passed after the 2024 elections, which requires organisations to be authorised by the government to operate.
Activists argue that under the constitution, new elections should be called within three to six months. However, there is debate among opposition groups, with some believing that calling new elections would undermine the significance of the 2024 results. The main opposition leader, María Corina Machado, has demanded the swearing-in of Edmundo González, widely believed to have won the 2024 election.
Deborah Van Berkel, from the NGO Ideas por la Democracia, says activists are cautious, as the regime remains in internal control of the country through repression. New elections would require independent electoral bodies, unrestricted access for international observers, and a free press, as well as “conditions of democratic governability” for the elected government.
Exiled activist Griselda Colina stresses that there is not a single public institution that is not dominated by Chavismo, and the long-awaited democratic transition will not be swift, given that democracy “has been dismantled for more than 20 years.” However, she says Venezuelans “refuse to live under dictatorship” and carry a “democratic reserve in our minds and aspirations.”