As France’s farmers once again take to the streets with their tractors in protest against the impending EU trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc of South American countries, the political fallout threatens to undermine the very foundations of European integration.
The European Commission has worked tirelessly to craft safeguards and emergency brakes to allay the concerns of France and other farming nations. Yet, President Emmanuel Macron has chosen to pander to the farm lobby, which represents less than 4% of France’s GDP and 2.5% of its workforce, rather than defend the broader economic benefits of the Mercosur deal.
Macron’s surrender to the beef producers legitimises their claims that the agreement will devastate French agriculture. This narrative plays directly into the hands of the far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, who is capitalising on the rural fury over the Mercosur pact.
The tragedy is that while the EU can finally claim an important victory in its strategy of sealing rules-based free-trade pacts with key regions and countries worldwide, it is doing so at the cost of empowering the Eurosceptic far-right in France, a founding member of the bloc.
Macron, elected in 2017 as a pro-European liberal reformer, has now chosen to appease the farm lobby rather than stand by his European convictions. His failure to rally a blocking minority to prevent the Mercosur deal from being approved has made him look weak and ineffective on the European stage.
The more profound impact of the failure of French political leaders to defend the economic benefits of the Mercosur deal is to reinforce public fears that Europe is ignoring and doing down France. This plays directly into the RN’s campaign themes of wresting back power from Brussels and cutting France’s contributions to the EU.
While Le Pen has dropped her past policies of advocating withdrawal from the euro or the EU, a less radical brand of Euroscepticism could help propel her young protege, Jordan Bardella, into the Élysée Palace next year. This would set Paris on a collision course with the EU and with Germany, which Bardella and radical-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon depict as the evil force behind Brussels’ free trade drive.
The stakes could not be higher. Losing the support of France, a founding member, for European integration if the far-right wins power, would have a more damaging impact on the long-term stability of the EU than any trade boost with Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.