The world is at a crossroads, with the familiar post-World War II international order facing unprecedented challenges. As the old certainties crumble, the question on everyone’s lips is: what comes next?
For decades, the rules-based global system, anchored by institutions like the United Nations and underpinned by Western liberal democratic values, has provided a semblance of stability and predictability. But in recent years, this order has come under intense strain, with rising powers asserting their influence and traditional powers struggling to maintain their dominance.
“The post-war order is unravelling before our eyes,” says Professor Emma Ashford, a foreign policy expert at the Stimson Center. “The assumptions that have guided global affairs for the past 75 years are being called into question, and we’re entering a period of profound uncertainty.”
The Ukraine war has been a major catalyst for this shift, exposing the fault lines within the international community. The West’s swift and coordinated response to Russia’s invasion has been hailed as a triumph for the rules-based order. However, the lack of a unified global stance, with key players like China and India adopting more ambiguous positions, has highlighted the fragility of this system.
“The war in Ukraine has really driven home the fact that the old post-war consensus is fracturing,” says Dr. James Nixey, head of the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House. “Countries are increasingly pursuing their own narrow interests, rather than deferring to a common set of rules and norms.”
This trend is not limited to the Ukraine crisis. The rise of authoritarian powers, the erosion of democratic values, and the growing influence of non-state actors have all contributed to the erosion of the post-war order. The COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated these challenges, exposing the limitations of global cooperation and the vulnerability of interconnected systems.
As the world grapples with these seismic shifts, the question of what might replace the existing order looms large. Some experts foresee a return to a more multipolar world, with a balance of power between the United States, China, Russia, and other emerging powers. Others envision a more fragmented global landscape, with regional blocs and spheres of influence taking precedence over universal rules and institutions.
“We’re entering uncharted territory,” says Professor Ashford. “The old playbook no longer applies, and we’ll need to develop new frameworks and mechanisms to manage the challenges of the 21st century. It’s a daunting prospect, but also an opportunity to rethink the foundations of global governance.”
Ultimately, the future of the international order will be shaped by the choices and actions of world leaders, as well as the resilience and adaptability of the global community. The stakes are high, and the path forward is far from clear. But one thing is certain: the post-war era is indeed over, and the world is bracing for what comes next.
