In a concerning development, China’s population has fallen for the fourth consecutive year, with the birthrate plunging to an all-time low. According to official data, the country’s population dropped by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion in 2025, a faster decline than the previous year.
The birthrate in China has reached a staggering 5.63 per 1,000 people, a level not seen since 1738 when the country’s population was around 150 million. This sharp decline has prompted warnings from experts about the long-term economic impact and the challenges of an ageing, shrinking workforce.
The data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals that births fell to 7.92 million in 2025, a 17% drop from the 9.54 million recorded in 2024. Meanwhile, the death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest since 1968.
Demographer Yi Fuxian of the University of Wisconsin-Madison described the 2025 birth figures as “roughly the same level as in 1738,” underscoring the dramatic decline in the country’s population growth.
The population decline, coupled with a rapidly ageing society, poses significant challenges for Beijing’s plans to boost domestic consumption and rein in debt. Over-60s now account for about 23% of the total population, and this figure is expected to reach 400 million by 2035 – roughly equal to the combined populations of the United States and Italy.
In response, the Chinese government has already raised the retirement age, with men now expected to work until 63 rather than 60, and women until 58 rather than 55. Additionally, authorities are trying to promote “positive views on marriage and child-bearing” to counter the long-term effects of the one-child policy, which was in force from 1980 to 2015.
Measures introduced to address the population decline include a national child subsidy and a commitment that from 2026, women will have “no out-of-pocket expenses” during pregnancy, with all medical costs, including IVF, fully reimbursed under the national medical insurance fund.
However, experts warn that these efforts may not be enough to reverse the alarming trend. China’s fertility rate, at around one birth per woman, remains one of the lowest in the world, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. Other East Asian countries, such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, have similarly low fertility levels.
The pool of women of reproductive age in China is forecast to shrink by more than two-thirds to fewer than 100 million by the end of the century, further exacerbating the demographic challenges facing the country.