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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is sending shockwaves through Africa’s agricultural sector, where farmers rely heavily on imported fertiliser from the Gulf. With supply chains through the critical strait of Hormuz severely impacted, experts warn that the consequences could be dire for food production and economic stability across the continent.
Fertiliser Imports Under Threat
African nations are particularly vulnerable to the fallout from the Iran conflict, as many depend on fertiliser imports transported via the strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route for both energy and agricultural products. A recent report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) reveals that Sudan receives a staggering 54% of its fertiliser through this channel, while Somalia and Kenya rely on it for 30% and 26% of their supplies, respectively.
The strait is a vital artery for roughly one-third of the global seaborne fertiliser trade, making its disruption a critical concern for food security. The Gulf region, with its abundant reserves of inexpensive fossil gas, plays a pivotal role in fertiliser production, particularly nitrogen-based products like urea, as well as phosphate fertilisers that utilise sulphur, a byproduct of oil refining.
Rising Costs and Economic Strain
Since the onset of hostilities last month, fertiliser prices have skyrocketed, exacerbating the already precarious economic situation for millions. Unctad warns that escalating costs will likely ripple through food prices, further straining the budgets of vulnerable households. The correlation between rising oil and gas prices and inflation is clear, and experts predict that the fallout will be felt most acutely by those with the least financial resilience.
“African economies have a fragile structure, making them susceptible to external shocks,” said Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa. He emphasised that any disruption can have far-reaching effects, particularly in nations grappling with high debt levels and inadequate infrastructure.
Professor XN Iraki from the University of Nairobi highlighted that the impact of increasing oil prices is particularly severe for the informal workforce, which dominates the continent. With many individuals in this sector experiencing fluctuating incomes, the pressures from rising costs could push more families into poverty.
Governments on High Alert
In response to the impending crisis, African governments are implementing measures to mitigate the expected economic fallout. Kenya’s energy minister, Opiyo Wandayi, assured that the country had arranged for petroleum imports to last until the end of April, pledging to maintain an uninterrupted supply. Meanwhile, Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan has ordered the strengthening of strategic fuel reserves to prepare for potential shortages.
Ethiopia has introduced a special fuel subsidy aimed at shielding citizens from the economic repercussions of escalating global oil prices. Zambia has also taken steps to prevent hoarding among fuel retailers, signalling the urgency of the situation.
Despite these efforts, Naidoo cautioned that while subsidies may offer temporary relief, they are unlikely to address the long-term challenges posed by such shocks. The continent recently faced similar turmoil in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, highlighting a recurring vulnerability in African economies.
Export Challenges and Market Shifts
The war’s repercussions extend beyond imports, affecting Africa’s ability to export goods, particularly to the Middle East. Last week, Kenya’s agriculture minister, Mutahi Kagwe, reported significant disruptions in the export of essential products like meat and tea to the region, underscoring the interconnectedness of global supply chains.
Conversely, the crisis may yield increased revenues for oil-exporting nations like Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola, as global demand shifts in response to supply constraints. However, this potential benefit for a select few does little to alleviate the hardships faced by the majority of African nations reliant on imports.
Why it Matters
The current geopolitical turmoil is not merely an international conflict; it is a catalyst for a potential agricultural crisis in Africa. As nations grapple with the immediate effects of supply chain disruptions, the long-term implications for food security, economic stability, and social unrest loom large. The stakes are high, and the resilience of African economies will be tested in the coming months as they navigate the treacherous waters of a disrupted global market.
