The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has emerged as a significant threat to food security across Africa, where agricultural systems heavily rely on imported fertilisers sourced from the Gulf region. Experts warn that the turmoil is not only affecting oil and gas supplies but also jeopardising the availability of critical agricultural inputs, with severe implications for local economies and household food expenditures.
Fertiliser Dependence and Supply Chain Vulnerability
Africa’s agricultural sector is notably reliant on fertiliser imports, with a considerable portion of these supplies transported via the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. According to a report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), countries such as Sudan, Somalia, and Kenya import 54%, 30%, and 26% of their fertiliser respectively through this key shipping route. The conflict has already resulted in substantial disruptions, reflecting the precarious nature of supply chains within the continent.
The Gulf region is a major producer of fertiliser, largely due to its abundant natural gas resources, which are essential in the production of nitrogen-based fertilisers like urea. Additionally, the region’s output of sulphur—a byproduct used in phosphate fertiliser production—is also significant. As prices of fertiliser have surged in recent weeks, the repercussions for food prices and living costs are expected to be profound, particularly impacting the most vulnerable populations in Africa.
Economic Strains Heightened by Conflict
African economies are already grappling with a multitude of challenges, including reliance on volatile foreign markets, high levels of debt, and underdeveloped infrastructure. The current geopolitical climate exacerbates these issues, leading to heightened uncertainty and increasing the risk of inflation.
“Any disruptions, any shocks really affect all of us,” commented Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, highlighting the interconnectedness of global supply chains. Rising oil prices further compound the situation, as many people in Africa work in the informal sector, where income is often unstable and unpredictable.
Rama Yade, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, noted that the implications of rising oil prices present “serious economic challenges” for African governments. With the potential need to increase subsidies or pass costs onto consumers, the risk of social unrest looms larger.
Regional Responses to Supply Chain Challenges
Governments across the continent are taking measures to mitigate the anticipated economic fallout. Kenya’s energy minister, Opiyo Wandayi, has assured that the country’s petroleum imports are secured through April, while Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan has instructed the strengthening of strategic fuel reserves. Ethiopia has introduced a temporary fuel subsidy aimed at alleviating the impact of soaring global oil prices, and Zambia has cautioned fuel retailers against stockpiling.
Despite these efforts, experts like Naidoo caution that existing mechanisms may fall short in the long term. The continent is still reeling from the economic shocks experienced during 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine severely disrupted supply chains.
On the flip side, the conflict could potentially benefit oil-exporting countries such as Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola, as they see increased revenues from rising crude prices. However, this does little to alleviate the plight of those nations that rely on imports for essential goods.
Export Challenges Amid Ongoing Conflict
The strife in the Middle East is also hampering African exports to the region, which are crucial for local economies. Recently, Kenya’s agriculture minister, Mutahi Kagwe, disclosed that the conflict has affected the export of various agricultural products, including meat and tea, to Middle Eastern markets. This disruption further complicates the economic landscape for countries that depend on these exports for revenue.
Why it Matters
The intersection of conflict, supply chain disruptions, and economic vulnerability in Africa highlights the urgent need for strategic interventions to safeguard food security. As nations grapple with the ripple effects of geopolitical tensions, the crisis serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of global trade networks. For millions across the continent, the implications are dire, underscoring the necessity for resilient agricultural policies and diversified supply channels to better withstand future shocks.
