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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has significantly impacted Africa’s agricultural sector, with experts warning that nations on the continent are particularly exposed to the ensuing supply chain disruptions. Many African farmers rely heavily on fertiliser imports from the Gulf, which are now jeopardised by the turmoil affecting trade routes through the strait of Hormuz. This situation threatens to escalate food prices and exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis for millions.
Fertiliser Dependency and Vulnerability
A substantial portion of Africa’s agricultural output hinges on fertiliser imported via maritime routes from the Middle East. According to a recent report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), countries such as Sudan, Somalia, and Kenya are heavily reliant on these shipments, with 54% of Sudan’s fertiliser arriving through this channel, alongside 30% for Somalia and 26% for Kenya.
The strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for approximately one-third of the world’s seaborne fertiliser trade. Fertiliser production in the Gulf region benefits from access to inexpensive fossil fuels, essential for the creation of nitrogen-based fertilisers like urea, as well as sulphur, a byproduct utilised in phosphate fertilisers.
Rising Costs and Economic Pressures
Since the conflict commenced last month, fertiliser prices have surged, raising alarms about food affordability and further intensifying the economic strain on vulnerable populations. The UNCTAD report highlights that soaring oil and gas prices will compound these challenges, placing additional burdens on households that already allocate a significant portion of their income to food expenses.
African economies are particularly susceptible to such shocks, characterised by reliance on external markets, volatile commodity exports, high levels of public debt, and inadequate infrastructure. Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, emphasises that any disruptions in supply chains can have widespread ramifications, affecting all sectors of society.
Professor XN Iraki from the University of Nairobi points out that the implications of rising oil prices will be felt most acutely in Africa, where a large segment of the workforce is employed in the informal sector, often with irregular income streams. Meanwhile, Rama Yade, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, notes on X that governments may face dire economic challenges, potentially compelling them to either increase subsidies or transfer costs to consumers, which could ignite social and political unrest.
Government Responses and Future Challenges
In anticipation of the unfolding crisis, several African governments are taking proactive measures to mitigate the impending shocks. Kenya’s energy minister, Opiyo Wandayi, recently announced that the country has arranged for petroleum imports to sustain supply until the end of April, while Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan has instructed her energy ministry to bolster strategic fuel reserves. Ethiopia has introduced a special fuel subsidy aimed at alleviating the financial burden on its citizens, and Zambia has cautioned fuel retailers against hoarding supplies.
Despite these measures, Naidoo cautions that existing mechanisms, such as subsidies, may prove insufficient for long-term relief. The continent’s experience during the 2022 supply chain disruptions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities it faces.
As the conflict continues, the repercussions are not limited to imports. African nations are also feeling the squeeze on exports. Kenya’s agriculture minister, Mutahi Kagwe, has reported that the conflict has disrupted the transport of key products like meat and tea to the Middle East, further straining the economic landscape.
Why it Matters
The implications of the Middle East conflict extend far beyond regional borders, with Africa’s food security hanging in the balance. As reliance on imports continues, the potential for rising prices and shortages threatens not only the agricultural sector but also the livelihoods of millions across the continent. Addressing these vulnerabilities and fortifying supply chains will be crucial as governments strive to protect their populations from the economic fallout of global conflicts.
