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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is severely impacting agricultural supply chains in Africa, where many nations rely heavily on imported fertiliser. Experts warn that the disruption in trade through the strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route, poses a significant threat to food security and economic stability across the continent.
Fertiliser Dependency in Africa
Agricultural productivity in numerous African countries is heavily reliant on fertilisers sourced from the Gulf region. A recent report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) highlights that Sudan imports 54% of its fertiliser via sea routes, while Somalia and Kenya depend on maritime imports for 30% and 26% of their fertiliser needs, respectively. Given that approximately one-third of global seaborne fertiliser trade passes through the strait of Hormuz, the current disruptions are particularly concerning.
The Gulf region’s abundant reserves of cheap natural gas are crucial for producing nitrogen-based fertilisers, such as urea, and its high sulphur output is essential for phosphate fertiliser production. As the conflict escalates, fertiliser prices have surged, raising fears that this will translate into higher food prices and intensifying the cost-of-living crisis for the most vulnerable populations in Africa.
Economic Vulnerability and Rising Costs
African economies are characterised by a precarious dependency on foreign markets, volatile commodity exports, high national debt levels, and inadequate infrastructure. UNCTAD emphasises that such factors render these nations particularly sensitive to global shocks. Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, noted the pervasive impact of supply chain disruptions, stating, “Any disruptions, any shocks really affect all of us.”
The ramifications of rising oil prices, which have surged alongside the conflict, will be felt acutely by African citizens, especially those working in the informal sector. XN Iraki, a business and economics professor at the University of Nairobi, highlighted the precarious nature of incomes within this sector, exacerbating the impact of escalating costs.
Rama Yade, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, expressed that the increased oil prices present “serious economic challenges” for governments across the continent. As these governments grapple with the dilemma of either increasing subsidies or passing costs onto consumers, the potential for social and political unrest looms large.
Government Responses to Supply Chain Disruptions
In anticipation of potential economic shocks, several African nations are taking proactive measures. Kenya’s energy minister, Opiyo Wandayi, indicated that the country has secured petroleum imports until the end of April, promising “necessary actions to ensure uninterrupted supply.” Similarly, Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan has instructed the energy ministry to bolster strategic fuel reserves, while Ethiopia has implemented a special fuel subsidy to mitigate the impact of soaring global oil prices. Zambia has also warned fuel retailers against hoarding supplies.
Despite these efforts, experts caution that while such strategies may provide short-term relief, they might not be sufficient to address the longer-term consequences of rising costs. The spectre of similar disruptions looms, reminiscent of the upheaval experienced in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Export Challenges and Opportunities
On the other side of the supply chain, African exporters are also feeling the strain. The conflict has complicated trade routes to the Middle East, affecting the export of key products such as meat and tea. Kenya’s agriculture minister, Mutahi Kagwe, recently acknowledged these challenges, underscoring the interconnectedness of global supply chains and the repercussions of geopolitical conflicts.
Conversely, while many African countries face significant hurdles, the situation may present opportunities for oil-exporting nations like Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola, which could see increased revenues as demand shifts toward them amidst the turmoil.
Why it Matters
The current crisis underscores the precarious nature of Africa’s agricultural systems and the urgent need for diversification in food production and supply chains. As rising global tensions disrupt critical import routes, the continent’s reliance on external sources for essential agricultural inputs raises alarms about future food security. The potential for increased food prices, coupled with already strained household budgets, could exacerbate socio-economic inequalities and ignite unrest, making it imperative for governments to act decisively in safeguarding their populations against the cascading effects of international conflicts.
