The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is severely impacting food security across Africa, where farmers are heavily reliant on fertiliser imports from the Gulf region. Experts warn that disruptions to supply chains, particularly through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, could exacerbate the economic pressures on households already grappling with high food prices and limited resources.
Fertiliser Dependency in Africa
Many African nations depend on fertiliser imported via maritime routes, with a significant portion sourced from the Gulf. According to a report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), approximately 54% of Sudan’s fertiliser is transported through these channels. Other countries, such as Somalia and Kenya, rely on imports for 30% and 26% of their fertiliser needs respectively. The current conflict has compromised this essential trade route, which is responsible for transporting nearly one-third of the world’s fertiliser.
The Gulf region is a major producer of fertiliser, leveraging its abundant and inexpensive natural gas to manufacture nitrogen-based fertilisers like urea, while also generating significant sulphur for phosphate fertiliser production. As the war escalates, fertiliser prices have surged, leading to forecasts of increased food costs and heightened living expenses, particularly affecting the most vulnerable demographics.
Economic Vulnerability Heightened
Experts assert that Africa’s economies are particularly sensitive to external shocks due to their reliance on imported goods. UNCTAD highlights that factors such as dependence on foreign markets, unstable commodity exports, substantial debt burdens, and inadequate infrastructure compound this vulnerability. Political analyst Jervin Naidoo from Oxford Economics Africa noted, “Any disruptions, any shocks really affect all of us.”
The implications of rising oil prices are especially pronounced across the continent, where a significant portion of the workforce is employed in the informal sector, which is characterised by fluctuating income levels. XN Iraki, a business and economics professor at the University of Nairobi, remarked that the economic impact would be felt “acutely” in these communities.
Rama Yade, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, emphasised the gravity of the situation, stating that escalating oil prices present “serious economic challenges” for African governments. The necessity for states to either bolster subsidies or pass on increased costs to consumers could initiate social unrest and political instability.
Responses from African Governments
In anticipation of potential supply shocks, various African governments are implementing measures to mitigate the impact on their populations. Kenya’s energy minister, Opiyo Wandayi, announced that the country has secured petroleum imports scheduled until the end of April to ensure an uninterrupted supply. Similarly, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan has instructed the energy ministry to enhance strategic fuel reserves in light of the crisis.
Ethiopia has introduced a special fuel subsidy aimed at cushioning citizens from the adverse effects of soaring global oil prices, while Zambia has taken steps to prevent fuel hoarding by retailers. Despite these initiatives, analysts like Naidoo caution that short-term measures such as subsidies may not suffice to alleviate long-term economic repercussions.
The situation mirrors the challenges faced in 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine similarly disrupted global supply chains, highlighting the fragility of food systems reliant on international trade.
Impacts on Exports and Global Trade
The conflict also disrupts African exports to the Middle East. Kenyan agriculture minister Mutahi Kagwe recently confirmed that the war has adversely affected the export of meat, tea, and other essential agricultural products to the region. As supply chains are strained, the potential for negative ripple effects on both local economies and international trade increases.
Conversely, rising crude oil prices may benefit oil-exporting nations like Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola, as they become more attractive suppliers to global markets seeking alternative sources amid the conflict. However, the overall picture remains one of significant uncertainty and risk for African nations as they navigate these tumultuous economic waters.
Why it Matters
The current geopolitical turmoil underscores Africa’s precarious position in the global supply chain, particularly regarding food security. As the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve, the ramifications for African farmers and consumers could be profound, potentially leading to increased poverty levels and social unrest. Addressing these vulnerabilities is crucial not only for the stability of individual nations but also for the broader economic health of the continent.
