The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is wreaking havoc on supply chains crucial to food production across Africa, experts warn. With a significant reliance on imported fertiliser from the Gulf, African nations find themselves particularly exposed as trade routes through the strategic strait of Hormuz face disruptions. This crisis could have dire consequences for food security and economic stability on the continent.
Dependence on Imported Fertiliser
In many African countries, the agricultural sector is heavily reliant on fertiliser imported via maritime routes from the Middle East, where production is concentrated. According to a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad), over half of Sudan’s fertiliser imports arrive through this vital shipping lane, with Somalia and Kenya relying on it for 30% and 26% of their needs, respectively. The strait of Hormuz is responsible for transporting approximately one-third of the world’s fertiliser, making these disruptions all the more concerning.
The Gulf region benefits from abundant natural gas, which is essential for manufacturing nitrogen-based fertilisers like urea, as well as significant sulphur production for phosphate fertilisers. However, since the onset of the conflict last month, fertiliser prices have surged, exacerbating food costs and straining the budgets of already vulnerable populations. Rising oil and gas prices only compound the pressures faced by households across the continent.
Economic Vulnerability Amplified
Africa’s economic landscape is marked by a high dependence on foreign markets and volatile commodity exports, coupled with significant debt and insufficient infrastructure. These factors have left many nations ill-equipped to handle external shocks. Political analyst Jervin Naidoo from Oxford Economics Africa highlights that any disruptions in supply chains have a cascading effect on the entire continent.
Professor XN Iraki from the University of Nairobi notes that the informal sector, which employs a large portion of the African workforce, is particularly susceptible to the economic fallout from rising oil prices. The unpredictable nature of income in this sector means that many families may struggle to cope with escalating costs.
Rama Yade, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, reiterated the severity of the situation on social media, stating that increasing oil prices present “serious economic challenges” for governments. She warned that these pressures could lead to a decision by authorities to raise subsidies or pass costs onto consumers, potentially igniting social unrest.
Government Responses to the Crisis
In anticipation of the potential fallout, African governments are implementing measures to mitigate the impact of rising fuel and fertiliser costs. In Kenya, Energy Minister Opiyo Wandayi reassured citizens that scheduled imports of petroleum products are set through April, with plans for uninterrupted supply. Meanwhile, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan has directed energy authorities to bolster strategic fuel reserves.
Ethiopia has introduced a special fuel subsidy designed to alleviate the burden on citizens facing economic strain due to soaring global oil prices. Zambia has taken a more proactive stance, warning fuel retailers against hoarding products to prevent shortages.
Despite these efforts, Naidoo cautions that while subsidies may provide temporary relief, they are insufficient as a long-term solution to the challenges posed by fluctuating prices. Many nations are still reeling from similar shocks experienced in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which also disrupted global supply chains.
Export Challenges
The ramifications of the ongoing conflict extend beyond domestic markets, affecting African exports destined for the Middle East. Kenyan Agriculture Minister Mutahi Kagwe reported disruptions in the export of vital products such as meat and tea to the region, signalling a broader impact on trade.
As countries in Africa grapple with these multifaceted challenges, the situation remains fluid. While oil-exporting nations like Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola may benefit from rising crude prices, the overall picture for African economies is one of heightened uncertainty and risk.
Why it Matters
The consequences of the conflict in the Middle East extend far beyond its immediate geography, casting a long shadow over Africa’s food security and economic resilience. As nations confront the dual challenges of rising costs and disrupted supply chains, the potential for social unrest looms large. The urgency of addressing these vulnerabilities cannot be overstated, as the stability of African economies and the wellbeing of millions depend on navigating this precarious landscape effectively.