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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is significantly impacting agricultural production across Africa, as experts warn that disruptions in supply chains—particularly for fertilisers—could lead to heightened food insecurity. With many African nations reliant on imports of fertiliser from the Gulf region, the ramifications of the war are being felt acutely, particularly at a time when household incomes are already under strain.
Fertiliser Dependency: A Critical Vulnerability
Agricultural sectors in numerous African countries, including Sudan, Somalia, and Kenya, depend heavily on fertiliser sourced from the Middle East, with the strait of Hormuz serving as a crucial conduit for these imports. According to a report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Sudan receives 54% of its fertiliser via this route, while Somalia and Kenya rely on it for 30% and 26%, respectively. This dependency makes them particularly susceptible to disruptions; approximately one-third of the world’s seaborne fertiliser trade traverses this strategic waterway.
The Gulf region is a major producer of fertiliser, benefiting from its abundant and inexpensive natural gas—essential for manufacturing nitrogen-based products like urea. The conflict has already led to soaring fertiliser prices, and UNCTAD has indicated that this could further escalate food costs, compounding the cost of living for vulnerable populations across the continent.
Economic Pressures Mounting on African Nations
The fragility of African economies is exacerbated by a confluence of factors, including reliance on foreign markets, debt burdens, and inadequate infrastructure. As Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, noted, “Any disruptions, any shocks really affect all of us.” The rising costs of oil and gas, in tandem with fertiliser price hikes, post serious economic challenges for governments already grappling with budgetary constraints.
Rama Yade, a senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, highlighted the potential for social unrest as policymakers may face the difficult choice between increasing subsidies or passing costs onto consumers. Such decisions could lead to mounting social and political pressures, particularly as many Africans work in the informal sector where income stability is uncertain.
Government Responses to Supply Chain Disruption
In anticipation of further disruptions, several African nations are taking proactive measures. In Kenya, Energy Minister Opiyo Wandayi announced that the country has scheduled petroleum imports through April to ensure a steady supply. Similarly, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan has instructed her government to bolster strategic fuel reserves. Ethiopia has implemented a special fuel subsidy to mitigate the effects of rising global oil prices, while Zambia has cautioned retailers against hoarding fuel.
Despite these measures, experts like Naidoo caution that subsidies and quick fixes may not suffice to address the long-term impacts of such shocks. The continent’s experience during the 2022 supply chain disruptions, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities at play.
Broader Economic Implications
While the conflict presents challenges for many African importers, it may simultaneously create opportunities for oil-exporting nations on the continent, such as Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola, which could see increased revenues as global demand shifts. However, the broader implications for food exports are also concerning, as highlighted by Kenya’s Agriculture Minister Mutahi Kagwe, who noted disruptions to the export of meat, tea, and other agricultural products to the Middle East.
Why it Matters
The turbulence caused by the conflict in the Middle East underscores the intricate web of global supply chains and their profound impact on local economies. For many African nations, reliance on imported fertilisers and fuels exposes them to significant risks, threatening food security and economic stability. As countries navigate this precarious landscape, the need for sustainable agricultural practices and diversified supply sources becomes increasingly urgent to safeguard against future shocks.
