As climate change continues to intensify, a new study has revealed that the rising temperatures have already taken a significant toll on American incomes over the past two decades. The research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, shows that without the effects of global warming, US incomes would be on average 12% higher today compared to the start of the millennium.
The study, led by researcher Derek Lemoine, examined the impact of changing weather patterns on county-level and national income data from 1969 to 2019. By comparing actual temperature records to climate model projections of what temperatures would have looked like without human-caused heating, Lemoine was able to quantify the economic damage already being inflicted by the climate crisis.
The findings challenge the prevailing narrative that the costs of tackling climate change are the primary concern, as Lemoine’s research demonstrates that the crisis itself is already proving costly for American households and businesses. Higher temperatures have been quietly chipping away at earnings power for over two decades, with the impacts manifesting in small, steady losses that accumulate over time rather than a single dramatic collapse.
While the exact mechanisms behind the income losses are not fully clear, previous studies have linked hotter weather to reduced crop yields, increased illness and injury, and limitations on the number of safe working hours, especially in sectors like construction, agriculture, and manufacturing. Additionally, the interconnected nature of the US economy means that temperature changes in one region can have rippling effects on prices, trade, and demand elsewhere.
The findings come as the Trump administration continues to roll back environmental regulations and withdraw the US from global climate agreements. Activists are increasingly highlighting the links between climate policy and economic well-being, with some newly elected officials, such as the mayors of New York City and Seattle, pursuing affordability-focused environmental measures.
Lemoine emphasises that solutions to the climate crisis must be addressed at both the national and global level, as the effects of warming “will spill over man-made borders.” As the economic costs of inaction become increasingly clear, the pressure may grow for policymakers to take more decisive action to mitigate the impacts of climate change on American incomes and the broader economy.
