As the European Union’s foreign affairs chief, Kaja Kallas, observed, China and Russia must be relishing the prospect of Donald Trump’s plans for Greenland, which she says will divide NATO. However, according to Trump, his motivations are driven by a desire to counter the very threat that Kallas identified. “World peace is at stake! China and Russia want Greenland, and there is not a thing that Denmark can do about it,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday.
Viewed from Beijing, Trump’s moves on Greenland represent further proof that the US-led world order is in turmoil, a trend that creates a significant opportunity for China. “Most Chinese people view this as yet another manifestation of Trump’s bullying, hegemonic and domineering behaviour,” says Wang Wen, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing. However, Wang adds: “Trump’s occupation of Greenland would signify NATO’s demise, a prospect that would greatly please Chinese people.”
For years, there has been growing concern in US foreign policy circles about China’s and Russia’s increased presence in the Arctic region. In 2019, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned that Beijing’s influence risked creating a “new South China Sea” around the North Pole as he pledged to beef up the US’ presence there.
Yet, when it comes to Greenland, Chinese stakeholders have struggled to gain a significant foothold, in part due to resistance from the US and Denmark. In 2018, reportedly under pressure from the US, Denmark blocked a bid from a Chinese state-owned company to expand a network of Greenlandic airports. A Chinese company was also blocked from buying an abandoned naval base in Greenland two years earlier.
“I doubt there is a single Chinese strategist who would have listed the US annexing Greenland as being among their security concerns,” says Andrew Small, director of the Asia programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “They have, on the other hand, seen the US alliance network as one of the most significant aspects of US strategic edge over China, and they saw the potential for that alliance network to be mobilised against China as one of their greatest concerns … the unraveling of US alliances brings a host of benefits [for Beijing]”.
Despite these setbacks, China has not given up on its hopes of establishing a “Polar Silk Road.” Between 2012 and 2017, China’s foreign direct investment in Greenland represented more than 11% of the territory’s GDP, a far greater share than in other Arctic nations. Greenland’s desire to attract Chinese investment to help it exploit its mineral resources has sometimes been at odds with the security concerns of Denmark, which controls the territory’s security and foreign affairs, and of other NATO allies.
However, since the start of the war in Ukraine, Beijing has drawn closer to Moscow, and has been viewed with greater suspicion by European countries, especially Russia’s neighbours. For years, Chinese companies struggled to turn mining projects in Greenland into lucrative business ventures. Trump’s overt interest in the territory has only made things harder.
“Since Donald Trump’s first presidential term … Chinese companies in Greenland have faced pushback from the United States and Denmark, and Beijing itself seems to have discouraged investment there in recent years,” says Patrik Andersson, at the Swedish National China Centre. “China’s engagement in Greenland today is extremely limited.”
Nonetheless, Beijing is trying to figure out how to deal with a US leader who is smashing up the global alliances that have countered China’s rise, but whose unpredictability and strongman sensibilities could yet threaten China’s interests.
