The UK’s net migration figures have been on a rollercoaster ride since the Brexit referendum, with dramatic swings in both directions. Official data shows a 69% plunge in net migration, from 649,000 in the previous year to just 204,000 in the year to June 2025.
This sharp decline has sparked a polarised political debate, with Labour leader Keir Starmer describing it as “a step in the right direction” – a characterisation that experts say downplays the scale of the drop. Brian Bell, chair of the independent Migration Advisory Committee, argues the recent migration surge was an “accident” rather than a deliberate policy, driven by factors like the Ukraine refugee scheme, a boom in international student enrolment, and the need for care workers during the pandemic.
While the government has tightened work visa rules in recent years, the anticipated post-Brexit rise in emigration – as foreign students leave after their studies – means net migration was always likely to fall sharply. This has left some sectors, like social care, struggling with recruitment.
Labour has promised a “fair pay agreement” for social care workers, but experts say more funding will be needed to make these jobs competitive with other low-wage work. The party has also vowed to reduce asylum seeker numbers, a small but politically salient part of the migration picture.
Navigating this charged issue will be a delicate challenge for policymakers. An honest acknowledgement of the rapid decline in net migration, and a clear vision for managing the impacts on different industries, may be needed to break the current political impasse.
