The ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has reached a critical juncture, as President Donald Trump has threatened to launch extensive airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure unless a satisfactory agreement is reached before Tuesday night. His provocative statements, including pledges to “bomb the country back to the Stone Ages,” have raised alarms regarding the potential humanitarian consequences of such military actions.
Intensifying Attacks on Civilian Infrastructure
In recent weeks, US and Israeli forces have escalated their military operations, targeting key infrastructure vital to everyday life in Iran. Reports indicate that strikes have damaged not only military installations but also civilian sites, including schools, hospitals, and critical manufacturing facilities. BBC Verify has documented attacks on at least two steel plants, three bridges, and a pharmaceutical company within a fortnight, highlighting the conflict’s toll on the Iranian populace.
Notably, a strike on Thursday targeted a bridge under construction in Karaj, resulting in the tragic loss of at least 13 lives. Footage verified by BBC Verify illustrates the destruction, with a significant gap left in the bridge’s structure. Trump shared video of the incident, boasting that “the biggest bridge in Iran comes tumbling down,” suggesting that further strikes were imminent.
Impact on Iran’s Economic Fabric
The ramifications of these military actions extend far beyond immediate casualties. The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has asserted that the strikes have severely compromised Iran’s steel production capabilities, claiming a disruption of up to 70%. Arman Mahmoudian, a research fellow at the University of South Florida, noted that such a decline in steel manufacturing could jeopardise nearly 20 million tons of output, potentially inflicting a significant blow to Iran’s GDP, estimated to be between 3% and 3.5%.
The pharmaceutical sector is also under siege, with a recent offensive directed at the Tofigh Daru Research & Engineering Company — a major producer of anaesthetic and cancer medications. The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) justified the strike by alleging that the company was involved in developing chemical weapons, a claim that remains unverified by independent sources. Mahmoudian observed that while pharmaceuticals constitute a small fraction of Iran’s economy, the attacks could severely hinder access to essential medicines during a critical period.
Civilian Casualties and Legal Implications
The conflict’s toll on civilian infrastructure has sparked serious concerns over potential violations of international law. Legal experts and senior officials at the United Nations have raised questions about whether these strikes could constitute war crimes. Under international law, military actions against civilian sites are permissible only under specific conditions that provide a clear military advantage, and they must not result in excessive civilian harm.
Acled, an independent organisation monitoring conflict impacts, reported that harm to civilians has primarily occurred in relation to strikes on military-linked facilities rather than indiscriminate attacks on urban areas. However, UN human rights chief Volker Turk has emphasised that deliberate attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure are unequivocally classified as war crimes.
Former prosecutor at the Hague, Sir Geoffrey Nice, warned that attacks on critical infrastructure such as power and water facilities could lead to disproportionate harm, potentially resulting in starvation and disease among civilians.
Trump’s Dismissal of War Crime Concerns
In a recent press conference, Trump appeared unfazed by the implications of his administration’s military strategy, asserting, “You know the war crime? The war crime is allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon.” His rhetoric suggests a continuation of aggressive tactics, even in the face of international scrutiny regarding the legality and morality of the strikes.
Why it Matters
The escalation of US-Israeli military actions against Iranian infrastructure not only threatens the stability of the region but also poses profound humanitarian concerns. The potential for widespread civilian casualties and the disruption of essential services could lead to a humanitarian crisis that extends beyond Iran’s borders. As international stakeholders grapple with the unfolding situation, the urgent need for diplomatic intervention becomes increasingly clear to avert a deeper conflict and safeguard civilian lives.