Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s ambitions to challenge Keir Starmer’s leadership of the Labour Party face a daunting set of obstacles, making his path back to Westminster a treacherous one.
Burnham’s first hurdle would be to stand down as mayor, a move that could cost the Greater Manchester authority millions in running a mayoral by-election. Even if he clears that hurdle, he would then need to secure the backing of Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) to be selected as the party’s candidate for the Gorton and Denton constituency.
However, sources within the NEC suggest Burnham has “zero” chance of being selected, with the body dominated by moderates aligned with Starmer. The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, chairs the NEC, while other members include the Solicitor General, Ellie Reeves, and the Chief Whip, Jonathan Reynolds.
The animosity between Burnham and Starmer is well documented, but the real challenge may come from the fury within Downing Street towards the mayor. Burnham’s perceived attempts to undermine the Prime Minister are seen as unforgivable by senior figures in No. 10.
Even if Burnham were to secure the Labour nomination, the Gorton and Denton constituency is not a safe seat. With a growing Reform UK vote and a significant Muslim population still dissatisfied with Labour and Starmer, the mayor would face a tough battle to win.
Burnham’s best hope may be to create enough public discomfort to embarrass No. 10 and force them to relent on blocking his path. However, some NEC members have shown a willingness to take a hard stance, as seen with Kemi Badenoch’s handling of Robert Jenrick’s disloyalty.
The road ahead for Burnham is fraught with challenges, and his ambitions to return to parliament and challenge Starmer’s leadership face significant hurdles. The mayor’s only viable option may be to stir up enough public pressure to compel Labour’s leadership to reconsider their stance, but even that strategy is far from guaranteed to succeed.