Voters in Toronto and Montreal are heading to the polls today for a series of crucial by-elections that may pave the way for Prime Minister Mark Carney to secure a majority government. As ballots are cast, political analysts are keenly observing the fierce competition in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne, while the two Toronto constituencies are expected to remain in Liberal hands. Polls will close at 8:30 p.m. ET.
A Crucial Battle in Terrebonne
The by-election in Terrebonne, a suburb of Montreal, has emerged as a significant battleground between the governing Liberal Party and the Bloc Québécois. This contest follows a Supreme Court ruling that annulled the previous election results in February due to a clerical error involving mail-in ballots. The Bloc candidate, Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, expressed gratitude for the public’s support following her legal victory, stating, “They were quite disappointed by the mistake Elections Canada made, but they were happy that I took the case all the way up to the Supreme Court.”
As campaigning intensified, Sinclair-Desgagné noted the effectiveness of her ground game, claiming, “We’ve been doing a great campaign … convincing citizens one-by-one.” With nearly 20 per cent turnout in advance polls, the Bloc’s push for voter engagement aims to overturn the narrow Liberal victory from the last election, which was won by a solitary vote.
Liberal Hopes Ride on Strong Campaigning
In stark contrast, the Liberals have mobilised a formidable roster of party heavyweights, including several cabinet ministers, to support their candidate, Tatiana Auguste. Health Minister Marjorie Michel, who played a key role in the campaign, acknowledged the shift in dynamics since the previous election. “I did a lot of doors,” she shared, emphasising that constituents are finding comfort in the Prime Minister during uncertain global times. “They are not scared because he’s there.”
Michel maintained that while there is chatter about a potential majority, the focus remains on the local dynamics of this election. “It’s a local door-to-door election. It’s a battle,” she asserted, highlighting the importance of grassroots campaigning.
The Stakes in Toronto
Meanwhile, the two by-elections in Toronto, prompted by the departures of Liberal MPs Bill Blair and Chrystia Freeland, are expected to bolster the party’s standing in the House of Commons. With the Liberals already holding 171 seats, these elections could propel them closer to the coveted majority threshold of 172 seats, or ideally, 173 for stable governance.
The recent defection of several opposition MPs to the Liberals has further positioned the party for success. This includes notable crossings from the Conservatives and the NDP, which have reshaped the political landscape. The latest surprise came from Marilyn Gladu, a seasoned Conservative MP, who shifted allegiance despite her previous criticisms of the government’s handling of various issues.
Navigating the Path to Majority
Achieving a technical majority requires 172 MPs, but 173 would provide the Liberals with a more effective governing position. The role of Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia, who only votes in the event of a tie, adds another layer of complexity. Should the Liberals find themselves with 172 seats, they would face a delicate balance, as their voting power would be equal to that of the opposition without Scarpaleggia’s support.
If successful in securing a majority, the Liberals would not only gain control over legislative proceedings but also influence committee structures—currently a shared power with the Bloc. This shift could have significant implications for the party’s agenda moving forward.
Why it Matters
The outcome of these by-elections holds considerable weight for the future of the Liberal government and Prime Minister Carney’s ability to govern effectively. A majority would not only solidify the party’s position in the House of Commons but also signal public confidence in their leadership during turbulent times. For voters in Terrebonne and the greater Toronto area, this election is more than just a local contest; it represents an opportunity to shape the direction of Canadian politics at a pivotal moment in history.