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On Monday, voters in Toronto and Montreal took to the polls in a significant trio of by-elections that could potentially enable Prime Minister Mark Carney to secure a majority government. Polling stations closed at 8:30 p.m. ET, as anticipation built around the outcomes, particularly in the battleground riding of Terrebonne, Quebec, which has become a focal point of political contention.
A Tight Race in Terrebonne
The by-election in Terrebonne is generating considerable attention due to its competitive nature. The local contest pits the Bloc Québécois against the governing Liberals, who are making a concerted effort to retain this riding. The stakes are high, especially given the history of this seat; the Liberals won it last year by a mere single vote. Voter turnout in the advance polls was reported at nearly 20 per cent, reflecting the intense interest in the outcome.
Dominic LeBlanc, along with several prominent cabinet ministers and even former Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson, campaigned in support of the Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste. The party has mobilised additional staff from nearby ridings to knock on doors and rally support, signalling their determination to clinch victory in this crucial election.
Bloc Québécois’ Ground Game
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, the local Bloc candidate, expressed confidence in her campaign efforts, indicating that she has been warmly received by constituents who appreciate her legal challenge that led to the by-election. “People feel thankful and grateful for the case I brought to the Supreme Court,” she said. Sinclair-Desgagné’s campaign focuses on direct engagement, aiming to persuade voters one conversation at a time: “We’re looking forward to having, hopefully, a clear result,” she added.
Health Minister Marjorie Michel, a key figure in the Liberal campaign, acknowledged the unique dynamics of this election compared to previous ones. “Last time, we won in a wave, but we have campaigned hard and the prime minister’s approval ratings are favourable,” she noted, reflecting on the local sentiments that could influence voter decisions.
Toronto By-Elections and the Liberal Majority
The two additional by-elections taking place in Toronto are intended to fill the seats left vacant by Liberal MPs Bill Blair and Chrystia Freeland. These ridings are expected to remain in Liberal hands, potentially bolstering the party’s position in the House of Commons and inching them closer to a majority.
Currently, the Liberals hold 171 seats, having welcomed five opposition MPs into their ranks since October. These floor crossings have included notable figures such as Nova Scotia MP Chris D’Entremont and Ontario’s Marilyn Gladu, who recently made headlines with her shift to the Liberal party despite her previous criticisms of the government.
Majority Implications for Carney’s Government
For Carney to achieve a technical majority, he must secure at least 172 seats; however, an effective governing majority necessitates 173 seats. This distinction is crucial as Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia, a Quebec Liberal, only votes in the event of a tie, which means that without a clear majority, the Liberals would find themselves in a precarious position.
If the Liberals manage to achieve a majority, they would gain the ability to amend the standing orders in the House, allowing them greater control over committee operations. Currently, the Bloc holds sway in committee decisions, and a majority would shift this balance of power significantly.
Why it Matters
The outcome of these by-elections holds significant implications not only for Carney’s government but also for the broader political landscape in Canada. A majority would empower the Liberals to implement their agenda more effectively, shaping policies that could impact Canadians across the nation. As voters navigate their choices, the results will be closely watched, heralding potential shifts in power dynamics and public sentiment leading into future elections.
