Lebanon finds itself at a critical juncture as it strives for peace while grappling with the formidable challenge posed by Hezbollah. The Lebanese government, under President Joseph Aoun, is seeking a diplomatic resolution to years of conflict, but the militia’s entrenched position complicates efforts. With the country reeling from a recent resurgence of violence, the stakes have never been higher.
A Fragile Ceasefire and Shifting Dynamics
Last August, I had the opportunity to meet President Aoun at the Baabda Palace, a modernist structure perched above Beirut. Aoun, previously the army chief, assumed the presidency following a devastating war between Israel and Hezbollah in November 2024. At that time, Hezbollah faced significant internal and external isolation, prompting Aoun to express his commitment to disarming the militia. “I was born an optimist,” he remarked, reflecting his hopeful outlook despite the dire circumstances.
Yet, the peace remains precarious. Israel conducts almost daily operations against targets it associates with Hezbollah, and sporadic violence continues to erupt across various regions of Lebanon. The recent assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has further escalated tensions, with Hezbollah retaliating by launching rockets into Israeli territory. Israel’s response was swift, leading to a renewed wave of airstrikes that devastated parts of Lebanon, claiming hundreds of lives in a single day.
The Challenge of Disarming Hezbollah
For many Lebanese, Hezbollah represents a dual identity: a protector against external aggression and a symbol of Iran’s influence within Lebanon. While some view the militia as a necessary defence against Israel, others argue that it has entangled the nation in conflicts that serve Tehran’s strategic interests rather than Lebanon’s. The question of disarmament remains contentious, with Aoun acknowledging that “disarmament can’t be done by force.” His administration’s attempts to negotiate directly with Israel, though historic, have yet to bear fruit.
Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, has consistently rebuffed discussions of disarmament, asserting that any attempts to impose such a condition would lead to disaster. “You can’t come to the Shia community and impose this by force,” Qassem stated, highlighting the delicate balance of power within Lebanon’s sectarian landscape. The Lebanese army, already stretched thin and underfunded, lacks the capacity to confront Hezbollah directly.
A Government Without Leverage
Lebanon’s complex demographic fabric features roughly 5.8 million residents across 18 officially recognised religious sects. As sectarian divisions deepen, public opinion reflects a stark divide regarding Hezbollah’s role. A recent Gallup poll indicated that around 80% of Lebanese support the notion that only the national army should wield arms. However, this sentiment is not uniformly shared; a significant portion of the Shia community remains steadfast in their support for Hezbollah.
Michael Young, a senior editor at the Carnegie Center, posits that the Lebanese army’s failure to disarm Hezbollah is not merely a matter of will but a reflection of the stark realities on the ground. Qassem has openly stated that the Lebanese government possesses “no cards” to negotiate with, rendering any diplomatic efforts futile.
The Human Cost of Ongoing Conflict
The humanitarian impact of the latest violence has been devastating. Over 1.2 million people have been displaced, predominantly from Shia areas, exacerbating sectarian tensions and complicating the already fragile social fabric. Many Lebanese citizens express a profound weariness from the relentless cycle of conflict. As one resident of Beirut lamented, “You don’t get rest. All my life, I’ve had the feeling that we’re in a continuous war.”
The notion of disarming Hezbollah not only raises geopolitical questions but also taps into deep-seated fears within the Shia community. Kim Ghattas, a journalist and author, notes that many Shia Muslims perceive their association with Hezbollah as a vital safeguard against historical marginalisation. The fear of returning to a state of vulnerability looms large over discussions of disarmament.
Why it Matters
The ongoing conflict in Lebanon has repercussions that extend far beyond its borders, affecting regional stability and international relations. As Hezbollah remains a significant player in the broader Iranian strategy against Israel, the Lebanese government’s struggle to assert its authority underscores the complexities of a nation caught between local aspirations for peace and external pressures. The path to disarmament, fraught with political and social challenges, will ultimately determine Lebanon’s ability to forge a lasting peace and redefine its identity in a turbulent region.
