As Sudan marks the third anniversary of its devastating conflict, the British Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, is set to advocate for an end to the violence during a pivotal conference in Berlin. The ongoing civil war has plunged the nation into a humanitarian crisis of alarming proportions, with over 19 million people now facing acute hunger and many regions teetering on the brink of famine. Despite these desperate circumstances, experts remain sceptical about the potential for meaningful peace negotiations at the summit.
Humanitarian Crisis Deepens
The Berlin conference aims to address a significant funding gap in humanitarian assistance as the international community grapples with competing priorities, particularly the ongoing crisis in Iran. Reports indicate that only 16% of the necessary funding for Sudan’s humanitarian needs has been secured this year. In response to the escalating situation, the UK is expected to announce a doubling of its aid contribution to £15 million, directed towards essential frontline services, including the grassroots Emergency Response Rooms.
The war, which has now persisted for nearly four years, continues to be characterised by fierce clashes between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Recent assessments from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reveal that regions such as North Kordofan, West Kordofan, South Kordofan, and North Darfur are experiencing “emergency” levels of hunger, with some communities enduring “catastrophic” conditions. The IPC warns that the number of individuals requiring humanitarian assistance could rise to as many as 23 million in the coming months.
Diplomatic Efforts at a Standstill
Cooper’s call for international unity to secure a ceasefire and a sustainable diplomatic resolution reflects a growing urgency to alleviate the suffering of the Sudanese population. She stated, “Today, in Berlin, I will call for the international community to join in a shared resolve: to secure a ceasefire and a diplomatic solution, to stop the suffering, and allow the people of Sudan to determine their own peaceful future.”
However, sources indicate that political momentum has significantly stalled, particularly among the Quad nations—comprising the US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. These nations have historically supported opposing sides in the conflict, leading to a complex web of alliances and rivalries. Tensions have escalated recently, particularly between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, following confrontations in Yemen. The anticipated presence of Massad Boulos, a political adviser to former President Donald Trump, has sparked hopes for renewed diplomatic engagement, though realistic expectations remain low.
A Grim Outlook
Experts predict that absent any substantial diplomatic breakthrough, the conflict in Sudan is poised to intensify, especially in the Kordofan region, which remains at the heart of hostilities. Paul Byars, the Sudan director for the Danish Refugee Council, noted, “I think there’ll be a worsening of the conflict in Kordofan. Neither side will give up, which means they’ll keep taking and retaking territory.”
Compounding the challenges of traditional warfare, the increasing deployment of drones has altered the landscape of combat. The United Nations has reported nearly 700 civilian casualties from drone strikes since January, underscoring the perilous situation faced by ordinary Sudanese citizens.
Why it Matters
The dire state of affairs in Sudan calls for urgent international action and solidarity. With millions of lives hanging in the balance, the outcomes of diplomatic efforts in Berlin could shape not just the future of Sudan but also influence regional stability in the broader Horn of Africa. As hunger and violence escalate, the world must focus on fostering dialogue and delivering humanitarian assistance to avert a catastrophe that could have far-reaching implications for global security.