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As Sudan’s devastating conflict approaches its fourth year, the British Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, is set to advocate for an immediate cessation of violence during a pivotal conference in Berlin. The meeting coincides with the third anniversary of the war, which has plunged millions into dire humanitarian conditions. Despite Cooper’s appeal for peace, experts express scepticism regarding the potential for significant diplomatic progress amidst ongoing tensions between key regional players.
Urgent Humanitarian Needs
The Berlin conference aims to address a critical funding shortfall exacerbating one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises. Alarmingly, only 16% of the required humanitarian aid for Sudan has been met this year, as global attention remains distracted by other geopolitical issues, particularly the situation in Iran.
In response to the escalating crisis, the UK government has announced a doubling of its aid contribution to £15 million, earmarked for frontline responders, including the grassroots initiative known as Emergency Response Rooms. This increase comes as the number of people facing acute hunger in Sudan has surged to over 19 million due to ongoing hostilities between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) recently reported “emergency” levels of food insecurity in regions such as North Kordofan, West Kordofan, South Kordofan, and North Darfur. Some areas are already experiencing catastrophic conditions, with predictions indicating that the humanitarian need could escalate to between 22 and 23 million individuals in the coming months.
Diplomatic Challenges Ahead
Cooper remains hopeful that a resolution to the violence is attainable. “Today, in Berlin, I will call for the international community to join in a shared resolve: to secure a ceasefire and a diplomatic solution, to stop the suffering, and allow the people of Sudan to determine their own peaceful future,” she stated.
However, the political landscape appears increasingly stagnant. Diplomatic discussions among the so-called Quad nations—comprising the US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—have reportedly failed to yield meaningful advancements. The deterioration of relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, particularly following recent hostilities in Yemen, complicates the situation further.
The presence of Massad Boulos, a political adviser to Donald Trump focusing on African affairs, has raised some hopes for renewed engagement. Nevertheless, insiders at the conference have tempered expectations, suggesting that any major breakthroughs, especially on the political front, are unlikely.
Prolonged Conflict and Escalating Violence
Without a diplomatic breakthrough, experts warn that the conflict in Sudan is poised to escalate, particularly in the Kordofan region, where fighting is most intense. Paul Byars, the Sudan director for the Danish Refugee Council, emphasised that both sides are unlikely to relent, leading to continued territorial skirmishes.
The use of advanced technology, such as drones, is anticipated to exacerbate the violence. The United Nations has reported nearly 700 civilian casualties resulting from drone strikes since the beginning of the year, a stark reminder of the conflict’s human cost.
Why it Matters
The situation in Sudan is more than just a regional crisis; it poses significant implications for global stability and humanitarian norms. The international community’s response, particularly in terms of funding and diplomatic efforts, will be pivotal in determining the future trajectory of not only Sudan but also the broader Horn of Africa. As millions face the threat of famine and violence, the urgency for a coordinated global response has never been more critical.