A recent survey conducted by ATB Cormark Capital Markets has unveiled a notable drop in confidence regarding the potential approval of a new oil pipeline intended for expedited federal review within the coming year. The poll, which engaged executives from 24 energy services firms, 22 exploration and production enterprises, and 17 institutional investors, was carried out between March 18 and April 1. Findings indicate that only 46 per cent of respondents now believe it is likely that a new pipeline will be classified as a project of national interest under recently enacted federal legislation, a decrease from 52 per cent recorded in a previous survey in late summer 2025.
Erosion of Trust in Government Action
The decline in optimism about the pipeline’s future appears to stem from a growing disillusionment with the Liberal government’s capacity to address the structural challenges it has faced over the past decade. One anonymous executive from a publicly traded exploration and production company articulated this sentiment, stating, “People are losing faith that the Liberal government will actually fix any of the structural problems they created in the last 10 years.” Another executive from a smaller private energy services firm echoed the call for change, urging for “less talk and more action” from the government. He asserted that “not one project (in oil and gas) has come to fruition,” stressing the need for clear directives that would expedite new initiatives.
Shifting Perspectives on Energy Expansion
Despite the bleak outlook for the pipeline proposal, there was a marked improvement in respondents’ views on the Liberal government’s commitment to expanding the energy sector. In the spring 2026 survey, 48 per cent of participants expressed belief that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s administration would actively promote growth in the energy landscape, a rise from 37 per cent in the autumn 2025 poll. This suggests that while confidence in the pipeline’s future may be waning, there is a growing belief in the government’s potential to support the broader energy sector.
In November, Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith signed a memorandum of understanding addressing various energy issues, including a streamlined review process for a new oilsands pipeline aimed at transporting up to one million barrels per day to the West Coast for export to Asia. This initiative is expected to lessen Canada’s dependence on the U.S. market. The Alberta government is poised to submit an application to the federal major projects office later this year, with intentions of passing the project to a private sector entity.
Unresolved Issues and Market Volatility
Crucially, the pipeline project’s progression is linked to the development of the substantial Pathways carbon capture and storage scheme, alongside anticipated increases in industrial carbon pricing to enhance its economic viability. The survey concluded just as critical deadlines outlined in the memorandum of understanding were approaching, leaving significant elements unresolved.
Patrick O’Rourke, managing director of institutional equity research at ATB Cormark, suggested that the dismal outlook regarding the pipeline may be influenced by the timing of the survey, particularly amidst uncertainties concerning deadline adherence. However, he also noted that the Alberta-Ottawa agreement has yielded positive developments, highlighting the unprecedented collaboration between federal and provincial governments.
Interestingly, respondents exhibited more enthusiasm for the revival of a portion of the discontinued Keystone XL pipeline, pursued by South Bow Corp. and Bridger Pipeline LLC, compared to the West Coast pipeline, which has yet to attract private sector interest. O’Rourke remarked, “We’re seeing a desire from both Canadian and U.S. counterparties to continue to grow our ability to move barrels north-south,” underscoring the complexities surrounding east-west transport.
Resilience Amidst Commodity Price Fluctuations
The spring 2026 survey coincided with a period of extreme volatility in commodity prices influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While global crude prices soared, reaching up to 70 per cent above pre-war levels, they have since stabilised somewhat. Despite the uncertain pipeline landscape, 86 per cent of exploration and production executives reported an optimistic outlook for business operations over the next six months, with 67 per cent of energy services respondents anticipating increased activity levels. Furthermore, 82 per cent of investor respondents have grown more bullish on energy investments in recent months.
O’Rourke stated, “A lot of these businesses have business models that work very well at crude prices in the US$70 to US$75 range,” indicating that the current market dynamics do not necessitate a spike to US$90 or US$100 for these companies to remain attractive investments.
Why it Matters
The findings from the ATB Cormark survey reflect a critical juncture for Canada’s energy sector, highlighting a disconnect between government intentions and industry expectations. As confidence in the government’s ability to facilitate new pipeline projects diminishes, stakeholders are calling for decisive action to navigate the complex landscape of energy development. The future of Canada’s energy infrastructure not only hinges on governmental commitment but also on its capacity to respond to the pressing demands of an evolving market environment.
