In a dramatic shift in Syria’s balance of power, government forces led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa have rapidly reclaimed large swaths of territory in the northeast that were previously under the control of a Kurdish-led militia alliance. This offensive marks the biggest change of control in the country since the end of the 13-year civil war in 2024.
The gains made by Sharaa’s forces against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have significantly reshaped the political landscape in Syria. Prior to this month’s push, nearly a third of the country’s territory was controlled by the Kurds, who enjoyed American support after helping a US-led coalition defeat the Islamic State (IS) group in the last decade. The Kurdish-run enclave, with its own government and institutions, is now facing a major setback.
The offensive came amid stalled talks between Sharaa’s government and the SDF about integrating the Kurdish-led forces into the country’s institutions. A deal was signed last March, but a year-end deadline expired with little progress as the SDF remained reluctant to give up its autonomy. Analysts suggest the militia alliance miscalculated in its negotiations, believing it would have the backing of its longtime ally, the United States.
However, the US under President Donald Trump has strongly supported Sharaa, who has defended his vision of a united Syria under the control of Damascus. Trump hosted Sharaa, who was once branded a terrorist by the US for his former links to al-Qaeda, at the White House last year and lifted devastating sanctions imposed on Syria during the Assad era.
On Sunday, after suffering significant territorial losses, the SDF agreed on a 14-point deal that reversed almost all concessions it had gained from the government in earlier negotiations. Crucially, its members are expected to join the Syrian army and interior ministry as individuals, rather than as a separate unit, while the control of oil and gas fields, important for Syria’s economic recovery, will be transferred to the government.
The announcement came days after Sharaa issued a decree that was seen as an attempt to reach out to the Kurds, whose rights had been denied in the five-decade rule by the Assad family. The decree designated Kurdish as a national language, granted Syrian nationality to stateless Kurds, and declared the Nowruz – the Persian new year – a national holiday.
However, the truce proved to be short-lived, as fighting erupted again. While the areas reclaimed by government forces have been mainly Arab, where local resentments against the SDF were high, the troops continued to move towards Kurdish-majority areas, raising the prospect of deadly clashes and reportedly angering Washington.
On Tuesday, Sharaa’s government suddenly announced a ceasefire, giving the SDF four days to present a detailed plan for the integration of areas under its control into the state. This move has halted the advance of the Syrian army and prevented the escalation of violence, for now.
The dramatic changes empower Sharaa but are likely to renew calls for him to decentralize authority, with critics saying key posts have been limited to his allies. It could also indicate what he may be planning to do in other areas of the country, including those held by the Druze, who demand autonomy.
For the Kurds, the losses are a fatal blow to their aspirations of preserving their autonomy, with the US position being seen as a betrayal. The future remains uncertain as Syria navigates this shifting political landscape.
