Recent research reveals a troubling intersection between climate change and electoral integrity, highlighting how natural disasters increasingly disrupt democratic processes across the globe. The findings, released by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, underscore the urgent need for electoral bodies to adapt to the challenges posed by climate-related events.
Natural Disasters Disrupt Elections
Over the past two decades, a staggering 94 elections and referendums in 52 countries have been affected by climate-related disasters, according to the report. In 2024 alone, 23 elections across 18 nations—including Brazil, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Senegal—were disrupted by severe weather events. This disruption manifested in various forms, including infrastructure damage, voter displacement, and last-minute changes to electoral processes, raising serious concerns about the resilience of democratic institutions.
The report’s co-author, Sarah Birch, a politics professor at King’s College London, emphasises the importance of scheduling elections around predictable climate hazards. She points out that even the United States insists on holding elections in November, coinciding with its hurricane season. “Elections should be held when disasters are least likely,” Birch stated, advocating for electoral bodies to reassess timelines to mitigate potential disruptions.
Case Studies of Climate Impact
The analysis highlights over 100 instances where climate-related crises have influenced electoral outcomes. For example, during Mozambique’s 2019 presidential election, Cyclone Idai caused widespread flooding, displacing thousands and affecting both voter turnout and the election results. Similarly, in Senegal’s parliamentary elections in November 2024, flooding necessitated the involvement of firefighters to transport election observers to polling stations.
Extreme heat is another recurring issue, impacting at least ten elections since 2022. The Philippines experienced significant complications during its last general election, as overheating vote-counting machines led to the rejection of previously accepted ballots. Such incidents reveal the intricate ways in which climate conditions can undermine electoral integrity.
Urban Areas at Greater Risk
Megacities, defined as urban areas with populations exceeding 10 million, face unique challenges from climate change. Lagos, Nigeria, is now experiencing an alarming 89 days each year where temperatures significantly exceed pre-climate change levels. This has profound implications for voter participation and the overall conduct of elections in densely populated regions.
To address these challenges, the report advocates for electoral organisers to collaborate closely with meteorological experts, environmental agencies, and humanitarian organisations. For instance, in Peru, election officials have received training in disaster risk management to better prepare for potential disruptions on voting day. Additionally, Alberta’s provincial legislature in Canada has adjusted its election date from May to October to evade the wildfire season, illustrating proactive measures being taken in response to climate threats.
The Need for Preparedness
Ferran Martínez i Coma, a professor of government at Australia’s Griffith University, highlights the increasing importance of contingency planning as natural hazards become more frequent. “Preparation is key to the integrity and resilience of the elections,” he asserts, advocating for robust training and strategic planning to mitigate the impact of climate events.
Why it Matters
The convergence of climate change and electoral processes raises critical questions about the future of democracy in vulnerable regions. As the frequency and intensity of natural disasters continue to escalate, the ability of electoral systems to function effectively will be jeopardised, potentially undermining the democratic rights of millions. It is imperative for governments and electoral bodies worldwide to adapt to these challenges, ensuring that democratic processes remain resilient in the face of an uncertain climate future.
