Recent research has illuminated a troubling intersection between democracy and climate change, revealing that natural disasters increasingly disrupt electoral processes. A groundbreaking report from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance has documented that over the past two decades, at least 94 elections and referendums in 52 countries have been affected by climate-related events. As extreme weather patterns become more frequent, vulnerable democracies—especially in Africa and Asia—face additional pressures that could compromise their stability.
Disruption Across the Globe
The report highlights that in 2024 alone, climate hazards interrupted 23 elections across 18 nations, including prominent examples from Brazil, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Senegal. These disruptions often lead to damaged infrastructure, displaced populations, or last-minute alterations to electoral protocols.
The co-author of the report, Sarah Birch, a political scholar at King’s College London, emphasises the urgent need for electoral bodies to reconsider their scheduling. “Elections should be held when disasters are least likely,” Birch stated, pointing out the peculiar timing of elections in places like the United States, which continues to hold polls in November, coinciding with the Atlantic hurricane season.
Case Studies: Elections in Crisis
One stark illustration of climate’s impact on voting occurred during Mozambique’s 2019 elections when Cyclone Idai devastated the region, inundating homes, schools, and transportation networks. The aftermath resulted in significant shifts in electoral outcomes and the distribution of political power.
Similarly, during Senegal’s parliamentary elections in November 2024, severe flooding required the assistance of firefighters to transport election observers to polling locations, demonstrating the logistical challenges posed by extreme weather. Heatwaves have also emerged as a critical concern, with at least ten elections since 2022 affected by soaring temperatures. The Philippines experienced this firsthand during its general election last year, where overheated vote-counting machines disrupted the process, leading to the rejection of previously accepted ballots.
The Urban Challenge: Megacities at Risk
The report pays particular attention to megacities—urban areas with populations exceeding ten million—where the ramifications of climate change are starkly evident. For instance, Lagos, Nigeria, now counts 89 days annually where temperatures are significantly elevated compared to historical norms. This intensifying heat poses a considerable risk to the integrity of elections, as the conditions can deter voter turnout and impact the operations of polling stations.
To address these challenges, the report advocates for greater collaboration between election organisers and experts in meteorology, environmental protection, and humanitarian response. In Peru, electoral officials have begun receiving training in disaster risk management, preparing them for possible disruptions on voting days. Moreover, the Alberta provincial legislature in Canada has opted to shift its traditional May election date to October, strategically avoiding the wildfire season.
Preparing for an Uncertain Future
Ferran Martínez i Coma, a professor at Griffith University in Australia, highlights the necessity of comprehensive training and contingency planning in the face of increasing natural hazards. “Preparation is key to the integrity and resilience of the elections,” he asserts, stressing that proactive measures can help safeguard democratic processes amid the escalating climate crisis.
Why it Matters
The nexus of climate change and democracy raises critical questions about the future of electoral integrity worldwide. As natural disasters continue to escalate in frequency and severity, the potential for undermining democratic institutions becomes increasingly pronounced. It is essential for governments and electoral bodies to anticipate these challenges and adapt accordingly, ensuring that the fundamental right to vote remains protected, even in the face of a changing climate. The survival of democracy may depend on our ability to harmonise electoral practices with the realities of a world in flux.
