In a stark address at The Globe and Mail’s Intersect 2026 conference in Toronto, former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney raised alarms about the province’s growing separatist sentiment and its potential implications for Canadian unity. While he believes that a successful secessionist movement in Alberta is unlikely, he cautioned that rising frustrations with the federal government could lead to serious challenges for national cohesion.
A Cautionary Tale from Quebec
Kenney drew parallels between Alberta’s current political climate and Quebec’s lengthy struggle for sovereignty. He labelled the Quebec sovereignty debate as a “sterile, pointless political civil war” that has inflicted significant economic harm. He warned that Alberta could find itself on a similar trajectory if the independence movement garners even minority support in a potential referendum. Kenney articulated his concerns, stating, “If they get enough of these frustrated federalists voting for leverage and you get, I don’t know, 20-, 30-, 35-per-cent yes, that creates a permanent divisive fact in our politics.” Such a scenario, he argued, would elevate the separatist movement from a marginal concern to a substantial force in Alberta’s political landscape, potentially creating lasting disruption.
The Rise of Separatism in Alberta
Over the past year, Kenney has emerged as a prominent advocate for the federalist perspective, actively engaging in discussions around Alberta’s separatism. His critiques of the movement are a rarity among provincial politicians, especially as figures like Premier Danielle Smith champion a vision of a “sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.” Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mark Carney has largely steered clear of the debate, and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has attributed the province’s sentiments to the alienation fostered by the federal Liberals.
Support for Alberta’s independence has fluctuated between 20 and 30 per cent in recent years but has gained momentum due to various political catalysts. The rhetoric surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s “51st state” comments, combined with ongoing frustrations with Ottawa and changes to direct-democracy laws by Smith, have invigorated the separatist cause. Smith’s decision to lower the threshold for signatures required to initiate a referendum has empowered separatist groups, who claim to have already gathered nearly 178,000 signatures, significantly ahead of the upcoming deadline.
Internal Political Dynamics
Kenney’s analysis of the current political landscape reveals a shift, noting that “alt-right populists” have become more active since the pandemic. He suggested that Smith’s adjustments to direct-democracy regulations serve dual purposes: managing tensions within her party and enhancing Alberta’s leverage in negotiations with the federal government. Polls indicate that approximately half of United Conservative Party (UCP) members support independence, reflecting a growing divide within the party.
Despite calls for her to denounce separatist sentiments within her ranks, Smith has maintained that a diversity of views is welcome. She is currently engaged in negotiations with Ottawa on energy policies, which she cites as evidence that Confederation can be functional. This has not been without controversy; UCP members recently expressed their displeasure with her during a party event.
The Risks of a Divided Nation
Kenney firmly objected to the notion that separatism could be a viable strategy for extracting concessions from Ottawa, referencing the economic fallout Quebec faced following its sovereignty referendums. “My message to Albertans is, like, is this really what we want to emulate? Is this, you know, impoverishment, becoming a have-not province?” he asked rhetorically. He underlined the inherent tension between Alberta and Quebec’s respective sovereignty campaigns, suggesting that both provinces are using a “knife-at-the-throat strategy” to negotiate with the federal government.
Moreover, with Alberta’s impending referendum on various immigration and constitutional proposals, expectations are running high. Smith has frequently cited Quebec’s special agreements with Ottawa as a model for Alberta’s ambitions, fuelling speculation about shared strategies between the two provinces, especially as both prepare for significant political contests.
As Quebec gears up for its provincial election, where the Parti Québécois is favoured to win, Kenney warned that any concessions Ottawa makes to Quebec could exacerbate frustrations in Alberta. “I think that with that frustrated federalist contingent, if we don’t get resolution on the MOU between Ottawa and Alberta… you could very well end up with a yes vote north of 35 per cent,” Kenney stated. He cautioned that Ottawa may underestimate the gravity of the situation.
Why it Matters
The rising tide of Alberta’s secessionist sentiment underscores a critical juncture in Canadian politics, where disillusionment with federal governance could reshape the country’s unity. Kenney’s insights serve as a clarion call for both provincial and federal leaders to engage more constructively with Alberta’s concerns. As the province prepares for a potentially divisive referendum, the outcomes could have lasting repercussions, not only for Alberta but for the very fabric of Canada itself. The need for dialogue and understanding between provincial aspirations and federal responsibilities has never been more pressing.
