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Recent satellite data reveals a glimmer of hope in the battle against deforestation, with global tropical forest loss showing signs of slowing down in 2025. However, the looming threat of the El Niño weather pattern, coupled with the effects of climate change, casts a shadow over this progress. Researchers estimate that approximately 43,000 square kilometres of old-growth tropical forests disappeared worldwide last year—an area roughly equivalent to Denmark. While this marks a notable 36% decrease from the record losses observed in 2024, scientists caution that the rate of forest destruction remains alarmingly high compared to a decade ago.
A Momentary Reprieve
The latest findings from the World Resources Institute and the University of Maryland indicate that the rate of deforestation has eased, primarily due to enhanced efforts to protect the Amazon rainforest and other vital ecosystems. Elizabeth Goldman, co-director of Global Forest Watch, expressed optimism regarding the decline, stating, “It’s incredibly encouraging to see the decline in 2025. This highlights how when we have political will and leaders who prioritise forests, we can see real results in the data.”
In Brazil, home to the planet’s largest rainforest, stronger environmental policies and law enforcement have played a pivotal role in curbing deforestation. Excluding losses attributed to wildfires, the country witnessed a decrease in old-growth forest loss to an estimated 5,700 square kilometres in 2025—the lowest figure since monitoring began in 2002. These forests are not just vital for biodiversity, housing millions of species; they also act as crucial carbon sinks, absorbing vast amounts of carbon dioxide and helping regulate the planet’s temperature.
The Dangers Ahead
Despite this encouraging trend, experts warn that the resurgence of the El Niño climate phenomenon later this year could significantly heighten the risk of forest fires. The warming conditions associated with El Niño could exacerbate the already precarious situation, igniting severe fires that threaten to undo the progress made in forest conservation. “Climate change and land clearing have shortened the fuse on global forest fires,” cautioned Professor Matthew Hansen from the University of Maryland. “Without urgent action to manage fire more effectively, we risk pushing the world’s most important forests past recovery.”
The threats posed by climate change are not confined to the tropics; a recent report from the EU’s Copernicus climate service highlighted how climate change has intensified heatwaves and droughts across Europe, contributing to widespread wildfires. In 2025 alone, over 10,000 square kilometres of land burned, surpassing the total area of Cyprus. As Alpine glaciers continue to lose ice and Arctic temperatures soar, the urgency for global climate action has never been more evident.
The Global Commitment
At the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in 2021, world leaders made a bold commitment to “halt and reverse” forest loss by 2030. Yet, the reality remains stark: progress towards this pledge is alarmingly off track. The unprecedented deforestation witnessed in 2024 serves as a stark reminder of the challenges that lay ahead, driven by intensified human activity and climate change.
Rod Taylor, global director for forest and nature conservation at the World Resources Institute, emphasised the need for resilience in forest ecosystems. “Forests are well equipped to cope with normal climate,” he noted, “but with these new intense fires and droughts, we must consider how to make forests more resilient and protect them against these threats.”
Why it Matters
The fate of our planet’s tropical forests hangs in the balance. These ecosystems are vital not only for biodiversity but also for climate regulation. As we face an uncertain future with climate change and the potential for more extreme weather events, the gradual decline in deforestation offers a sliver of hope. However, the looming threat of El Niño reminds us that vigilance and commitment to conservation are essential. The consequences of inaction could be dire, leading to irreversible damage to the planet’s most critical ecosystems. The time for decisive action is now, as the world grapples with the dual challenges of climate change and biodiversity loss.
