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Recent satellite observations indicate a significant deceleration in global tropical forest loss, attributed largely to enhanced deforestation controls in Brazil and other nations. In 2025, approximately 43,000 square kilometres (17,000 square miles) of vital old-growth tropical forests vanished worldwide, a reduction of about one-third compared to the alarming figures from the previous year. However, experts caution that the ongoing threats posed by climate change, particularly with the anticipated arrival of the El Niño weather pattern, could jeopardise these gains and escalate forest fires.
A Promising Decline in Deforestation Rates
Data from the World Resources Institute and the University of Maryland reveals that tropical forest loss fell by an impressive 36% in 2025. While this trend offers a glimmer of hope, scientists stress that the rate of deforestation still exceeds levels recorded a decade ago. The recent decline reflects not only the easing of the unprecedented wildfires witnessed in 2024 but also the robust conservation policies implemented by several countries, including Brazil, Colombia, and Malaysia.
Elizabeth Goldman, co-director of Global Forest Watch at the World Resources Institute, remarked, “It’s incredibly encouraging to see the decline in 2025. This highlights how when we have political will and leadership committed to forest preservation, tangible results can be achieved.”
In Brazil, home to the Amazon—the largest rainforest on the planet—stricter environmental regulations and enhanced law enforcement have played pivotal roles in mitigating deforestation. Notably, only 5,700 square kilometres (2,200 square miles) of old-growth forests were lost in Brazil last year, marking the lowest figure since monitoring began in 2002.
The Looming Threat of El Niño
As the world anticipates the impact of the El Niño phenomenon later this year, concerns mount regarding its potential to intensify forest fires. El Niño is known to exacerbate dry conditions, creating a perilous environment for forest ecosystems already stressed by climate change and human activities.
Rod Taylor, global director for forest and nature conservation at the World Resources Institute, stated, “Forests are well equipped to cope with normal climate. However, with these new intense fires and droughts, we must consider how to enhance forest resilience against climate change and fire threats.” The need for innovative management strategies, particularly in fire-prone regions, is more pressing than ever.
Prof. Matthew Hansen from the University of Maryland echoed these sentiments, warning, “Climate change and land clearing have shortened the fuse on global forest fires. Without urgent action to manage fire effectively, we risk pushing the world’s most important forests past the point of recovery.”
Progress Amidst Persistent Challenges
Despite the promising decline in forest loss, the global commitment to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030, as pledged at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in 2021, remains alarmingly off track. The rapid loss of tropical forests in 2024, driven by human-induced climate change and the influence of the El Niño weather pattern, starkly contrasts with the recent improvements.
In Europe, the Copernicus climate service recently reported that climate change has significantly contributed to severe heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires across the continent. In 2025, over 10,000 square kilometres (4,000 square miles) burned, a land area larger than Cyprus, as the continent grappled with record-high temperatures and escalating fire risks.
Why it Matters
The interplay between conservation efforts and the looming threats posed by climate change underscores the urgent need for sustained global action. The recent data indicates that with the right political will and committed leadership, progress is achievable. However, the potential escalation of wildfires linked to El Niño serves as a stark reminder that without proactive measures to enhance forest resilience, the world’s most vital ecosystems remain perilously close to irreversible damage. The stakes are high, not just for the forests, but for global climate stability and biodiversity.
