The ongoing conflict in Iran is threatening to disrupt the global food supply chain, potentially jeopardising up to 10 billion meals weekly, particularly in the world’s most impoverished regions. Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara, one of the largest fertiliser manufacturers globally, has warned that the war has severely hindered shipments through the vital Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for fertiliser distribution.
Fertiliser Shortages and Global Food Production
Holsether highlighted the staggering impact of the war on food production, stating that the world is currently missing out on approximately half a million tonnes of nitrogen fertiliser. The consequences of this shortage could be dire, with crop yields falling by as much as 50% for certain crops within the first growing season.
“The implications for food production are alarming,” Holsether remarked. “We could see 10 billion meals not produced each week due to the lack of fertilisers.” The ripple effects of this crisis will be felt most acutely in regions like Asia, South East Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where the immediate impacts of reduced fertiliser availability will become evident.
The Impending Food Crisis
With planting seasons varying across the globe, the UK is currently in its peak planting period, while farmers in Asia are just beginning their planting cycle. Analysts predict that the repercussions of the fertiliser shortages will not be visible in food prices until later in the year, when diminished harvests from this spring begin to surface.
Professor Paul Teng, a food security expert in Singapore, noted that while some countries may have enough fertiliser for the current planting season, prolonged shortages could severely impact crops like rice in the near future. “If the crisis continues, we will see significant repercussions on food production in the coming months,” he warned.
Challenges Facing Farmers
Farmers worldwide are grappling with escalating costs that are not yet reflected in the prices they receive for their produce. “They are dealing with soaring energy prices, rising costs for diesel and other farming inputs, and yet crop prices have not adjusted accordingly,” Holsether explained.
According to the United Nations, around one-third of the world’s fertilisers, including urea, potash, ammonia, and phosphates, typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The current conflict has led to an 80% surge in fertiliser prices since hostilities escalated. Holsether cautioned that if the conflict persists, a bidding war for food could erupt between wealthier and poorer nations, with dire consequences for vulnerable populations in developing countries.
The Rising Tide of Food Inflation
In the UK, the Food and Drink Federation projects food inflation could soar to 10% by December. Meanwhile, the Bank of England has indicated that food price inflation may hit 4.6% in September, with further increases anticipated later in the year. The UN World Food Programme has estimated that the fallout from the conflict could lead to 45 million more people experiencing acute hunger by 2026.
In the Asia-Pacific region, food insecurity is expected to rise by 24%, marking the largest relative increase across any region.
Why it Matters
The intersection of geopolitical strife and agricultural supply chains has profound implications for global food security. As fertiliser shortages loom and prices escalate, the most vulnerable populations are at risk of being disproportionately affected. The potential for increased hunger and food scarcity calls for urgent action and a reevaluation of how nations can ensure food affordability and security in an increasingly interconnected world.