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Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to embark on a significant visit to Armenia this Saturday, a trip his office describes as focused on enhancing Ukraine’s defence and boosting trade and investment opportunities across Europe. However, experts are expressing concern that this visit may not align with Canada’s historical commitment to promoting democracy and peace in the region.
A Shift in Focus
Jean-François Ratelle, an international studies professor at the University of Ottawa with expertise in the Caucasus, has voiced disappointment regarding the apparent lack of emphasis on democratic advocacy during Carney’s visit. “This indicates a fundamental shift in our foreign policy, prioritising our own interests over the values that have long defined Canada’s international role,” Ratelle remarked. His comments reflect a broader unease about Canada’s current trajectory in foreign affairs.
The Prime Minister’s stay in Yerevan, lasting from Saturday through Monday, coincides with the European Political Community summit. This forum aims to foster strategic cooperation among member states on matters of politics, security, and infrastructure. Notably, Canada will be the first non-European nation to participate in these discussions, which have gained prominence following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Engaging with European Leaders
Experts suggest that Carney’s visit may primarily serve to strengthen defence procurement agreements with Europe. Achim Hurrelmann, co-director of the Centre for European Studies at Carleton University, noted that this gathering creates a unique opportunity for Carney to engage directly with leaders from the European Union, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. “This is a chance to implement some of the collaborative initiatives that have been established with the EU,” he explained.
However, while the visit may pave the way for potential projects, the challenge remains in securing the necessary private investment to bring these initiatives to fruition. The Prime Minister’s announcement, it seems, has largely overlooked the complex history of the Caucasus, where tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have persisted since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Unresolved Tensions in the Caucasus
Historically, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been embroiled in conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is predominantly inhabited by ethnic Armenians but internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan. Recent escalations, particularly following Azerbaijan’s military actions that displaced over 100,000 individuals in 2023, have drawn international scrutiny. Canada has previously condemned Azerbaijan’s aggressive measures and participated in EU security missions, signalling a commitment to supporting democratic processes in the region.
Yet, since Carney’s administration began, there appears to be a noticeable decline in Canadian engagement in promoting democracy within Armenia. Ratelle pointed out a stark contrast between past actions and the current administration’s approach. “While Canada has made statements regarding the importance of democracy and the prevention of ethnic cleansing, tangible actions have been lacking,” he asserted.
The Broader Geopolitical Landscape
The geopolitical significance of the Caucasus is intensifying, with both Armenia and Azerbaijan positioned strategically next to Iran. These nations are increasingly attracting American investments as part of a broader initiative aimed at fostering peace through economic collaboration. According to Ratelle, successful development in this area is contingent on maintaining stability over the next decade or so, amidst ongoing disputes over borders and cultural heritage sites.
Additionally, Armenia’s perception of insufficient international support in the fragile peace process with Azerbaijan—backed heavily by Turkey—adds another layer of complexity to the situation. The disappointment surrounding Carney’s previous G7 summit, where Caucasus issues were not prioritised, further underscores the challenges facing Canadian foreign policy in the region.
Carney’s anticipated trip marks the first visit of a Canadian Prime Minister to Armenia since Justin Trudeau attended the Francophonie summit in 2018. This visit comes at a crucial time as Canada seeks to strengthen economic ties with various countries, including Turkey, where Carney is scheduled to attend the NATO summit in July.
Why it Matters
As Canada navigates its evolving role on the global stage, the implications of Carney’s visit to Armenia extend beyond mere diplomatic engagement. They reflect a pivotal moment in which Canada must reassess its commitments to democratic values and international law, particularly in regions fraught with conflict. With increasing geopolitical complexities, the decisions made in the coming days will have lasting consequences for Canada’s relationships with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as its standing in the international community.
