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In a significant diplomatic move, Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to embark on a trip to Armenia this Saturday, with his office indicating that the visit will centre on bolstering Ukraine’s defence and enhancing trade and investment opportunities across Europe. However, critics argue that this focus represents a departure from Canada’s previous commitment to advocating for democracy and peace in the region.
A New Approach to Foreign Relations
Carney’s visit to Yerevan will span from Saturday to Monday and includes participation in the European Political Community summit, which aims to foster strategic cooperation in areas such as politics, security, and infrastructure. Canada makes history as the first non-European nation to attend these meetings, which have been convened biannually since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This summit brings together a diverse group of EU member states and other nations, including Ukraine, Turkey, and Iceland.
Profound insights on the implications of Carney’s visit come from Jean-François Ratelle, an expert in international studies with a focus on the Caucasus at the University of Ottawa. He expressed disappointment that the agenda seems less about continuing Canada’s historical advocacy for democratic values in Armenia and more about aligning with self-interest and economic opportunities. “We are witnessing a complete change of our foreign policy,” Ratelle remarked, highlighting the shift from a principled stance to one prioritising immediate national advantages.
Strengthening Defence Ties
The prime minister’s agenda appears to be primarily focused on advancing defence procurement agreements with European partners. Achim Hurrelmann, co-director at the Centre for European Studies at Carleton University, suggests that the visit provides Carney with a platform to engage directly with EU leaders and counterparts from Ukraine and the UK. This engagement is seen as a crucial step towards implementing collaborative defence initiatives that have been discussed previously.
However, Hurrelmann cautions that while the desire for joint projects is present, actualising these initiatives and securing necessary private investment remains a considerable challenge. “What has proven to be more difficult is to create joint projects and find the private investment that is necessary for that,” he noted, underscoring the complexities of international defence collaboration.
Historical Context and Regional Dynamics
The political landscape in the Caucasus remains fraught with tension, particularly between Armenia and Azerbaijan, who have contested the Nagorno-Karabakh region for decades. Despite the international community, including Canada, recognising Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, the majority of its inhabitants are ethnic Armenians. The conflict has escalated recently, with Azerbaijan launching military operations against separatist factions, leading to significant displacement and humanitarian concerns.
Historically, Canada has maintained a vocal stance against Azerbaijan’s aggressive actions and has taken steps to support democratic initiatives in the region. However, Ratelle argues that since Carney’s ascension to the premiership, this engagement has waned. “We virtue-signalled with regard to ethnic cleansing and the importance of democratization, but we didn’t really walk the walk after that,” he stated, lamenting the lack of visible support for democratic advancements in Armenia.
Looking Ahead: The Future of Armenia-Canada Relations
The timing of Carney’s visit coincides with growing geopolitical interest in the Caucasus, a region that straddles critical borders with Iran and is becoming increasingly pivotal in international trade discussions. Armenia and Azerbaijan’s recent outreach to American investors reflects a broader strategy to establish peace through enhanced economic ties, which could lead to significant opportunities for both nations if a stable geopolitical environment is maintained.
As Carney prepares for this diplomatic engagement, it is evident that Armenia seeks to strengthen its ties with middle powers like Canada, which may offer some balance to its relations with larger actors in the region. Nevertheless, the concern remains that economic interests may overshadow the urgent need for advocacy in human rights and democratic governance.
Why it Matters
Carney’s impending visit to Armenia serves as a litmus test for Canada’s evolving foreign policy approach under his leadership. The pivot towards prioritising trade and defence collaborations, while potentially beneficial in the short term, raises questions about the long-term implications for Canada’s role as a proponent of democracy and human rights in regions historically fraught with conflict. As geopolitical dynamics shift, the imperative for Canada to balance economic interests with its foundational commitment to democratic values has never been more critical.
