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Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to embark on a significant visit to Armenia this Saturday, aiming to bolster trade and investment ties with European nations while addressing ongoing support for Ukraine. His trip, which extends until Monday, coincides with the European Political Community summit in Yerevan, marking Canada as the first non-European nation to participate in this gathering since its inception following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
A Shift in Focus
Jean-François Ratelle, an expert in international studies at the University of Ottawa, has expressed concern that Carney’s visit may not adequately reflect Canada’s historical commitment to advocating for democracy and stability in Armenia. Ratelle noted, “We are witnessing a complete change of our foreign policy and what are our general interests. It’s looking for our own interests and our own opportunities, and not playing that leading role in norms, and what used to define Canada.”
During his time in Yerevan, Carney will engage in bilateral discussions with prominent leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. These discussions are expected to centre on strategic cooperation across various sectors, particularly defence procurement and investment opportunities.
Historical Context
The backdrop of Carney’s visit is steeped in a complex history of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, particularly over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Despite Canada recognising this territory as part of Azerbaijan, the population is predominantly ethnic Armenian. In recent years, tension has escalated, particularly following the reduction of Russian peacekeeping forces after the Ukraine invasion, leading to Azerbaijan’s military actions that have displaced over 100,000 people in 2023 alone.
Historically, Canada has been vocal against Azerbaijani aggression and has joined EU security missions to support Armenia. However, the current administration’s focus appears to have shifted towards economic interests, raising questions about Canada’s commitment to supporting democracy in the region. “We virtue-signalled with regard to ethnic cleansing, with regard to the importance of democratisation, but we didn’t really walk the walk after that,” Ratelle remarked.
Geopolitical Implications
Armenia’s geopolitical significance is on the rise, with both Armenia and Azerbaijan vying for stronger ties with Western nations, particularly the United States. This strategy is seen as a means to facilitate a peace process through enhanced economic cooperation, potentially creating substantial trade opportunities. Ratelle emphasised that while these initiatives could yield significant benefits, their success hinges on a stable geopolitical climate over the next decade or more.
Despite these opportunities, Armenia continues to grapple with internal challenges, including systemic corruption and political influence over its judiciary, as highlighted in Freedom House’s recent report. The struggle for democratization remains fraught with difficulties, underscoring the importance of international support.
An Evolving Relationship
Carney’s visit comes on the heels of a previous meeting of G7 leaders, where discussions around Caucasus issues notably lacked prominence. Ratelle noted that this oversight reflects a broader shift in priorities under the current administration, favouring economic trade over the upholding of international law. “It speaks, I think, volumes of the current administration that the priority is more about economic trade … than upholding international law,” he said.
The invitation extended by Armenia for Carney to attend the summit indicates a desire for stronger relations with mid-sized powers like Canada. Carney himself acknowledged that this will be his first visit to the country, following Justin Trudeau’s attendance at the Francophonie summit in 2018.
Why it Matters
As Canada navigates its foreign policy landscape, the upcoming visit by Prime Minister Carney serves as a crucial moment for defining its role on the world stage. The focus on trade and investment raises important questions about the balance between economic interests and the nation’s historical commitment to promoting democracy and human rights. As the geopolitical dynamics in the Caucasus continue to evolve, Canada’s approach could significantly impact regional stability and its relationships with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The outcome of this visit may well shape the future direction of Canada’s foreign policy, underscoring the need for a thoughtful and principled approach in these complex international relations.
