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As the ongoing conflict in Iran continues to escalate, major oil corporations are reaping unprecedented profits, raising alarms among climate advocates and experts. The surge in oil prices, driven by geopolitical turmoil, threatens to reverse hard-won progress in the transition toward renewable energy and bolster the political clout of the fossil fuel industry, particularly during an era marked by rising environmental concerns.
Profits Soar Amidst Conflict
The turmoil triggered by the Iran conflict has created a significant shock to global energy markets, particularly affecting oil prices. ConocoPhillips recently reported a staggering $2.3 billion in profits for the first quarter of 2026, representing an 84% increase compared to pre-war levels. Valero Energy also exceeded expectations with quarterly earnings of $1.2 billion, while Liberty Energy, founded by former Trump administration official Chris Wright, recorded a 32% increase in profits to $10 million.
Notably, BP and Shell also indicated overwhelming financial performance, with BP more than doubling its quarterly profits. Meanwhile, though Chevron and ExxonMobil reported declines initially, forecasts suggest their earnings will rebound significantly in the upcoming quarters, with ExxonMobil’s profits expected to more than double year-on-year.
The Human Cost of Oil Profitability
As these oil giants thrive, ordinary Americans are left grappling with soaring fuel prices. The recent spike in gasoline prices to an average of $4.52 per gallon—the highest since July 2022—has raised concerns about the affordability of daily commutes and living expenses. Kelly Mitchell, Executive Director of Fieldnotes, highlighted the paradox of the situation: “The reason why oil companies are doing so well right now is exactly because Americans are hurting.”
This sentiment was echoed by Democratic Representative Sean Casten, who criticized the political prioritisation of the oil industry over the needs of everyday consumers. He noted that the Trump administration has actively rolled back environmental protections and increased fossil fuel exports, exacerbating the financial burden on the public. “If you are a US oil producer, you are really happy right now, and if you’re a US oil consumer, you’re really not,” Casten lamented.
Political Ramifications of Rising Oil Profits
The financial windfall for oil companies comes at a time when their political influence is surging. Lukas Shankar-Ross from Friends of the Earth warned that the substantial profits could create a “wall of money” around political victories that favour fossil fuels. This situation is compounded by recent legislative efforts, such as Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which represents the most significant expansion of fossil fuel subsidies in a generation.
Economists Isabella Weber and Gregor Semieniuk have expressed concerns that increased cash flow for oil companies will lead to escalated lobbying efforts, further entrenching the fossil fuel sector in US policy. “Cash flows are up, so there’s more money to go around, including for lobbying,” Semieniuk explained, highlighting the potential for a powerful backlash against climate initiatives.
Hope for Renewables Amidst Challenges
Despite the current challenges posed by the oil sector’s resurgence, there are glimmers of hope for renewable energy. The competition between fossil fuels and renewables has shifted, with the latter becoming increasingly economically viable. Notably, March marked a milestone when the US generated more electricity from renewable sources than from gas for the first time in history.
Moreover, rising gas prices may undermine support for the current administration and create opportunities for pro-environment leadership in future elections. Weber cautioned, “We may not see the very same trends we saw during the last shock. But is this a big boost to big oil? Of course, absolutely.”
Why it Matters
The current situation underscores a critical juncture in the global energy landscape. As oil companies consolidate their profits and political influence amidst international conflict, the path toward sustainable energy becomes increasingly precarious. With climate change already posing existential threats, the potential rollback of environmental policies in favour of fossil fuel expansion could have devastating implications for future generations. It is imperative that advocates for a cleaner, more equitable energy future continue to mobilise efforts to counter this trend, pushing for policies that prioritise renewable energy and the well-being of everyday citizens over corporate profits.
