As the war in Ukraine rages on, negotiators from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are set to meet in Abu Dhabi for their first trilateral talks since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The stakes are high, but expectations remain cautious, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy describing the upcoming discussions as “a step” rather than a positive outcome.
The key issues on the table include the status of the eastern Donbas region, where Russia has failed to make significant gains on the battlefield, and Ukraine’s demand for “security guarantees” from the US. Zelenskyy has previously stated that Ukraine is 90% of the way towards a framework deal for peace, but the final 10% remains the most challenging.
Despite the progress in talks, the situation on the ground remains dire, with Russia continuing its relentless attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, leaving parts of Kyiv without power or water amid freezing temperatures. The mayor of Kyiv has urged residents to leave the city if they have the means to do so, warning that the situation may worsen.
Zelenskyy’s recent meeting with former US President Donald Trump in Davos was described as “really positive,” and the Ukrainian leader hopes to secure more air defence support against Russia’s attacks. However, Zelenskyy remains cautious about the outcome of the talks in the United Arab Emirates, acknowledging that Russia could still reject any potential deal.
The issue of land, particularly the eastern Donbas region, remains a significant obstacle, with Russia insisting that Ukraine hand over this territory, which Ukraine has vowed to defend at all costs. Zelenskyy has made it clear that this “line in the Donbas” is drawn with the blood of Ukrainian soldiers who have died defending it.
As the negotiations unfold, the question of how much the US can be trusted to provide meaningful support to Ukraine also looms large. Zelenskyy’s trust in the US has been tested, particularly after the brief suspension of intelligence sharing and military aid under the Trump administration.
With the stakes high and the challenges numerous, the upcoming talks in Abu Dhabi will be closely watched as the world seeks a path towards a resolution to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.