As the people of Wales prepare to elect a new devolved government in just over 100 days, the political landscape appears to be undergoing a seismic shift. Opinion polls suggest the prospect of a groundbreaking result, with the once-dominant Labour party facing the real possibility of being rejected for the first time ever.
The valleys of South Wales, long considered Labour’s heartland, have been the stomping grounds of giants like Hardie, Bevan, Kinnock, and Foot. However, the mood within Welsh Labour as it contemplates these upcoming elections is bleak, even bordering on despondent.
The stakes are high, as these contests will determine who is responsible for some of the most crucial public services that people rely on daily, such as health, education, transport, and planning. But the significance extends far beyond Wales itself, as the outcome could have profound implications for Sir Keir Starmer’s future as leader of the Labour Party.
“Labour have won every election here at a devolved level since 1999, when devolution started,” explains Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University. “Labour have also won every general election, for over a hundred years here. Now we are facing the prospect of not only Labour not being the largest party, but potentially not even the second or third largest party.”
This potential collapse of Labour’s dominance has surprised many, including the party itself. “The speed of Labour’s collapse has surprised people, not least Labour itself,” says Laura McAllister, professor of public policy and the governance of Wales at the Wales Governance Centre.
The party faces a double incumbency, as they are in government in both Cardiff and London. This means a weary, impatient electorate can, if it so chooses, unleash a double dose of blame on Labour. It is precisely this that so many Labour folk fear.
Meanwhile, the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru and the upstart Reform UK appear to be making significant gains. “Plaid Cymru have always played an important role in devolved politics. But now, all the evidence seems to point to them being the favourite to be the largest party, as things stand, and that is very, very new,” observes Larner.
This shift is driven, in part, by societal changes, with more people than ever before describing themselves as Welsh only. “For Plaid we are also seeing big societal change. More people than ever before describe themselves as Welsh only,” Larner notes.
Reform UK, too, has its sights set on Wales, with Nigel Farage hailing it as a significant moment for the party. The Conservatives, long burdened by the legacy of deindustrialisation in these parts, may find themselves squeezed, as Reform UK presents itself as a viable right-wing alternative without the same historical baggage.
As the campaign unfolds, Labour’s vast experience in governing Wales could prove to be a double-edged sword, as the electorate appears to be drawn to the prospect of the new and novel. The party founded by Keir Hardie now finds itself confronting social changes and a fragmented electorate in its political heartland, with the potential defeat posing a significant psychological blow to its contemporary leader, Keir Starmer.