Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor and a leading figure in the Labour Party, is gearing up for a crucial byelection in Makerfield, where he is expected to be confirmed as the Labour candidate later this week. However, allies caution that Burnham’s path to victory may be fraught with challenges, particularly given the formidable support for Reform UK, which recently captured over half of the votes in local elections. As tensions rise within the Labour Party regarding its future direction, this byelection could have far-reaching implications for both Burnham and the wider political landscape.
A Crucial Contest for Labour
The upcoming byelection, likely to take place on or around June 18, 2026, is set to be one of the most pivotal moments in recent British political history. Burnham’s allies are increasingly vocal about the significant hurdles he faces, with current polling suggesting that he is only marginally ahead of his Reform UK rival. This party, led by Nigel Farage, is expected to leverage voter sentiments surrounding immigration and Brexit, particularly at a time when Labour is grappling with internal divisions over its stance on European Union membership.
The stakes are high for Keir Starmer, the leader of Labour, who has pledged to support Burnham in his bid. However, should Burnham fail to secure a clear mandate in Makerfield, Starmer’s leadership could be severely compromised, leaving him vulnerable to challenges from other party members. One ally remarked on the precarious situation, stating, “I would give Andy a 45% chance of winning, maybe a bit more than that,” underscoring the gravity of the situation.
Burnham’s Campaign Strategy Under Scrutiny
As Burnham canvasses in Greater Manchester, he is not only seeking to galvanise support but also navigating a tense selection process as applications for the Labour candidacy close. If Burnham emerges as the sole candidate, the process could be expedited, allowing him to focus entirely on winning the byelection.
However, the timing of the byelection comes as Labour grapples with a public dispute surrounding its position on EU re-entry, sparked by comments from Wes Streeting, a potential rival for the leadership. Streeting has advocated for a rejoining of the EU, a stance met with criticism from senior figures including Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy. This internal discord could play into the hands of Reform UK, which is poised to highlight Labour’s conflicting messages on Brexit, potentially alienating undecided voters in Makerfield, where 65% supported leaving the EU in the 2016 referendum.
Immigration and the Leadership Challenge
Another contentious issue likely to dominate the byelection campaign is immigration. With many Labour members favouring a more lenient approach to the asylum system, Burnham finds himself in a difficult position. He must balance the progressive views of Labour’s base against the more hardline sentiments prevalent among constituents in Makerfield. As the campaign unfolds, Labour’s position will face further scrutiny, particularly with the Liberal Democrats aiming to push an amendment advocating immediate discussions on entering a customs union.
Starmer, who spent the weekend contemplating his political future at Chequers, may be reevaluating his commitment to stand for re-election should Burnham succeed in Makerfield. Sources close to the Prime Minister indicate that while he publicly maintains his intention to contest again, he is increasingly open to stepping aside if Burnham secures a significant victory.
The Path Ahead
The dynamics of this byelection are complex, with Burnham’s personal popularity in Greater Manchester potentially countering the demographic trends favouring Reform UK. Pollster Luke Tryl highlights the dual forces at play, suggesting that if Labour cannot win in Makerfield, it may signal a dire future for the party.
This byelection is not merely a contest for a parliamentary seat; it is a litmus test for Labour’s viability and a potential turning point for its leadership. As Burnham battles to unify progressive voters behind his campaign, he must also navigate the treacherous waters of public opinion on pivotal issues like Brexit and immigration.
Why it Matters
The outcome of the Makerfield byelection could redefine the trajectory of the Labour Party and its leadership. A victory for Burnham may rejuvenate the party and challenge the prevailing narrative around its viability, while a loss could spell disaster, leaving Labour without a clear direction and potentially paving the way for a resurgent Reform UK. As political tensions escalate, all eyes will be on Makerfield to see if Labour can reclaim its foothold or if it will succumb to the rising tide of populist sentiment.
