As the new year dawns, Prime Minister Keir Starmer finds himself in a precarious position. Despite his efforts to mend relations with his backbench MPs, speculation about his future refuses to subside. With Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, confirming his intention to return to Westminster, the question remains: can Sir Keir cling to power?
Starmer’s attempts to woo his own MPs by inviting them to drinks at the Prime Minister’s country residence, Chequers, have hit a stumbling block. Some Labour MPs are even planning to boycott the event, with one MP telling The Independent, “If I went, it would only be to read him the riot act, and I don’t think it is the right venue for that.” Others feel snubbed, with one previously loyal minister expressing despair, “We just don’t seem to know what we are doing, where we are going. Colleagues go out on the morning round (on the broadcasters) to defend something and then find out we have changed our mind. It’s chaotic.”
The spectre of Burnham’s potential return to parliament is dominating the conversation within the party, with one backbencher describing him as “the only person who can save us from Nigel Farage and fascism.” Speculation had swirled for months that Andrew Gwynne, the MP for Gorton and Denton, would quit, allowing Burnham to be elected in the resulting by-election. Gwynne has now announced his decision to step down, and Burnham has confirmed his intention to seek permission to stand.
However, there are murmurings of mechanisms, such as an all-women or all-BAME shortlist, being used to prevent Burnham from throwing his hat into the ring. A senior minister and Burnham ally warned The Independent as far back as September last year that Starmer would block Burnham’s candidacy, as the Greater Manchester mayor would “not be just running to be an MP but running to be prime minister.”
Angry MPs have already made it clear they are not willing to put up with such Machiavellian machinations, with one ally warning, “I think the backlash against Andy being blocked would be so bad that MPs would be up in arms and it would probably hasten Starmer’s departure.”
Regardless of whether Burnham returns to Westminster, Starmer faces various other pitfalls. The Prime Minister’s struggles are perhaps best represented by the Monday flight from Glasgow Airport, which carries the bulk of Scottish MPs down to London to start the parliamentary week. Just before Christmas, this flight revealed a dividing line within the party, with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holding an event in Scotland’s biggest city, while those who still support Starmer took the flight south. As one MP observed, “MPs who wanted [another leader] went to Anas’ event, those who still support Keir took the flight south. There weren’t many people on that flight.”
With the party struggling in the polls and the threat of a strong challenge from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, Starmer’s grip on power appears to be slipping. As one loyal MP noted, “If there was an election tomorrow, I would lose my seat to Reform.” Another echoed a similar sentiment, “If I lose my seat, I will be the first Labour MP in 100 years to do so; I really don’t want that. But I would certainly lose to Reform at the moment.”
The coming months will be crucial for Starmer’s political future. As he navigates the treacherous waters of party politics, the Prime Minister will be hoping that an evening of food and wine at Chequers can at least partly win over his disgruntled Labour MPs. But with the spectre of Burnham’s potential leadership challenge looming, Starmer’s hold on power remains uncertain.