In a significant political development, allies of Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham have alleged that Downing Street is engaging in a campaign to undermine his chances in the forthcoming Makerfield by-election. Concerns have surfaced within Labour that the leadership may not fully support Burnham, potentially jeopardising Labour’s prospects in a critical contest against Reform, a party that recently dominated local council elections.
Downing Street’s Alleged Strategy
Insiders close to Burnham assert that Labour’s leadership is adopting a ‘soft’ approach toward his candidacy, suggesting that while MPs may be encouraged to support him, they will not impose a strict party whip. This lack of decisive backing has raised alarms among Labour MPs, who see Burnham as a potential game-changer in the party’s struggle to regain ground in Makerfield, especially after Reform’s recent electoral successes.
Compounding these concerns, some Labour MPs have been told that Burnham’s return could mean a revival of former leader Jeremy Corbyn, who was expelled from the party due to controversies surrounding antisemitism. This speculation has stirred unease among party members, particularly in light of ongoing issues related to antisemitism within the party.
The Stakes of the By-Election
The stakes are high for Labour in Makerfield, where a Reform candidate, local plumber Robert Kenyon, is expected to contest. Many within Labour believe that without strong leadership and strategy, the party risks losing this seat. Polling experts, including Professor Sir John Curtice and Lord Robert Hayward, have indicated that should Burnham win, he could emerge as the next leader of the Labour Party, significantly reshaping the political landscape.
However, not all Labour figures share this optimism. Supporters of Wes Streeting, a rival within the party, have dismissed the notion that obstructing Burnham would save the current Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer. They argue that discontent among party activists is growing, with many prepared to campaign vigorously against the current leadership.
Internal Divisions and Political Calculations
The political climate within Labour appears increasingly fractious. A close ally of Starmer has warned that the coalition of support for Burnham is already showing signs of strain, with divisions between the party’s left and right factions becoming evident. As Burnham seeks to position himself as a unifying candidate, he faces the daunting task of reconciling differing viewpoints on critical issues such as immigration and Israel.
Starmer has publicly committed to supporting the Labour candidate without revealing a timeline for his own potential departure, insisting that the by-election is of utmost importance. His comments reflect the tension within the party, as various factions vie for influence and control over Labour’s future direction.
The Impact of Brexit on Burnham’s Campaign
The Brexit debate looms large over Burnham’s candidacy, particularly in a constituency that leans heavily towards Leave. Some analysts suggest that Streeting’s recent comments advocating for rejoining the EU could complicate Burnham’s campaign, potentially alienating pro-Leave voters. The complexity of navigating Brexit sentiments in a divided constituency will require careful strategy from Burnham if he is to succeed.
Why it Matters
The outcome of the Makerfield by-election could have profound implications for Labour and its leadership structure. A victory for Burnham may not only position him as a prominent contender for the party leadership but also signify a shift in Labour’s approach to governance and policy-making. Conversely, failure could further entrench existing divisions within the party, complicating its efforts to mount a credible challenge against Reform and other opposition parties in future elections. The unfolding political drama underscores the precarious nature of Labour’s current standing in British politics, with leadership battles and ideological conflicts posing significant challenges ahead.
