The international system is at a crossroads, as the “middle powers” face a grave new challenge. The rules-based order that emerged after World War II, underpinned by American might, is being challenged by a resurgent unilateralism from the United States.
In 2002, veteran BBC correspondent Allan Little gave a speech at Columbia University’s Journalism School, reflecting on the post-war order that he had grown up in. He described how the United States had played a pivotal role in rebuilding Europe and securing peace and prosperity in the West. However, a young Pakistani student in the audience offered a different perspective, likening the US to “Imperial Rome” – a power that could act with impunity, even against its own allies.
Now, nearly two decades later, this tension is playing out on the global stage. Under the Trump administration, the US has shown a willingness to disregard the established international order, pursuing a “America First” strategy that privileges strength over rules.
The recent spat over Greenland is a case in point. When President Trump demanded that Denmark sell the territory to the US, the European allies began to coalesce in defiance, rather than bending to American pressure. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described this as a “moment of rupture” with the old order, calling on the “middle powers” to act together.
This shift is not entirely new, however. The US has a long history of unilateral interventions in its “backyard” of Latin America, often in pursuit of economic interests. The Monroe Doctrine, first articulated in 1823, has been used to justify such actions, and President Trump’s re-interpretation of this doctrine is seen by some as part of a continuum in US foreign policy.
The challenge for the “middle powers” is clear. As Carney warned, “if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.” With the Great Power rivalries of the past resurfacing, these nations must find a way to defend their interests and the rules-based order they have come to rely on.
The veterans of World War II, who built that post-war system, would likely be dismayed to see it unravelling. They had learned the hard way the dangers of a world without rules and law. Now, a new generation must take up the mantle of defending democracy, the rule of law, and accountable governance – values that are not naturally occurring, but must be fought for and sustained.