The global order, long built on trust and cooperation, is rapidly disintegrating under the leadership of Donald Trump’s United States. As the rules-based international system unravels, middle powers like Australia find themselves increasingly marooned, their security and economic interests deeply intertwined with an unpredictable and unreliable ally.
The recent events surrounding Greenland, where Trump threatened tariffs and even military action against European allies over the territory, have laid bare the fragility of the transatlantic alliance. As former ABC foreign correspondent Zoe Daniel writes, “The United States, under Donald Trump, cannot be trusted.” With Trump’s disregard for protocol, ethics and consequences, the “new normal” has left Australia grappling with the profound implications for its defence, security and economic systems.
The comments from former Bank of England governor Mark Carney, delivered at the World Economic Forum in Davos, have resonated strongly. Carney’s assertion that “the old order is not coming back” underscores the urgent need for middle powers to band together, as Canadian Prime Minister Carney warned, lest they find themselves “on the menu.”
For Australia, the situation is particularly precarious. Its close alliance with the US, exemplified by the ANZUS treaty, is being tested like never before. Reports that Canada has modelled a hypothetical US invasion scenario highlight the growing unease about the reliability of historic partnerships.
As Zoe Daniel argues, Australia can no longer “pretend” that the global order, built on trust, remains intact. Trump’s actions, from Ukraine to Gaza, have eroded the rules of war and humanitarian principles, leaving Australia marooned between its values and its security interests.
The former independent member for Goldstein warns that disengaging from this web of interdependence is “at worst impossible, at best extraordinarily complicated.” With Trump’s ally Steve Bannon criticising Australia’s response to COVID-19, the country finds itself navigating a treacherous path, unable to rely on the “mateship” of the past.
In this new era of uncertainty, Zoe Daniel’s call for middle powers to “stand together” resonates strongly. As the global order crumbles, Australia must recalibrate its foreign policy, seeking new alliances and asserting its own interests in the face of an unpredictable and unprincipled superpower.
