As the Gorton and Denton by-election approaches on 26 February, Labour is ramping up its social media campaign against the Green Party, amid escalating concerns that Zack Polanski’s party could emerge victorious. With tactical voting and a backdrop of internal party discord, this contest is shaping up to be a critical battleground in Greater Manchester.
Labour’s Counter-Offensive
In response to polling that suggests the Greens could siphon votes away from Labour, the party has released a video urging constituents to reconsider any inclination to back Polanski’s Greens. The ad underscores that Labour is positioned as the primary alternative to Reform UK in the constituency, while also criticising Green policies, particularly their stance on drug legalisation.
Despite the public messaging, Labour MPs have privately expressed fears that growing discontent with the party could result in a tactical vote for the Greens. This discontent has been exacerbated by the resignation of former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne, who stepped down following controversial comments about a constituent.
Internal Divisions and Historical Precedents
The selection of Labour’s candidate has not been without controversy. Mayor Andy Burnham’s exclusion from the race has sparked significant divisions within the party, raising concerns of a repeat of the “Caerphilly scenario.” In that by-election, Labour, historically dominant, fell to third place, overtaken by Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.
One Labour MP lamented, “The leadership has made it very hard for us,” while another acknowledged the reality on the ground: “It’s between the Greens and Reform. The Greens winning is actually the worst-case scenario.”
Polling Insights and Political Implications
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice highlighted that this by-election could see a four-way contest involving Labour, Reform, the Greens, and George Galloway. Each of these parties risks splitting the vote, particularly within the Muslim community, which could severely disadvantage Labour.
Market research analyst Lord Robert Hayward has also indicated that the Greens are in a strong position. “I can foresee the Greens winning,” he remarked, suggesting that their success could signal a shift in political allegiance on the left, mirroring trends seen in Scotland and Wales.
Green Party’s Strategy
Zack Polanski, eager to capitalise on Labour’s vulnerabilities, asserted that “it’s Greens vs Reform,” asserting confidence in his party’s appeal. He aims to run a campaign unlike any seen before, framing the contest as a battle between community values and the influence of big money in politics.
Labour’s response to Polanski’s assertions has been direct. A party insider dismissed the Greens’ chances, stating, “Zack Polanski has spent days trying to peddle false narratives.” They argue that the Greens are out of touch with local sentiments, particularly regarding public safety issues linked to drug policy.
Why it Matters
The outcome of the Gorton and Denton by-election could serve as a pivotal moment for Labour, highlighting the party’s struggle to maintain its traditional support base amidst rising dissatisfaction. A loss to the Greens would not only signal a shift in voter sentiment but could also have far-reaching implications for Labour’s strategy moving forward, particularly in the build-up to the next general election. As voters weigh their options, the stakes could not be higher for all parties involved.
