A recent Ipsos survey indicates a notable decline in support for Alberta’s separatist movement, coinciding with the anticipated referendum set for October. Conducted between May 28 and June 1, the poll reveals that only 19 per cent of Albertans are now inclined to vote in favour of a binding referendum on independence, while a significant 72 per cent express a desire to remain a part of Canada.
Declining Support for Independence
The latest figures depict a stark drop in the enthusiasm for separation compared to earlier in the year, when 28 per cent of respondents supported the idea. The Ipsos poll suggests that should a referendum occur, 18 per cent would vote for independence, while 72 per cent would choose to stay. The remaining respondents either remain undecided, would abstain from voting, or did not provide an answer.
Darrell Bricker, chairman of Ipsos Canada, noted that as the prospect of a referendum becomes more tangible, support for separation appears to be waning. “As people contemplate the reality of voting, we see that support for separatism is softening,” Bricker stated in an interview with Global News, highlighting the shifting sentiments among the populace.
Stronger Commitment to Remaining in Canada
The Ipsos data further indicates that those favouring union with Canada exhibit a stronger conviction towards their choice. A striking 90 per cent of respondents who wish to remain in Canada describe their decision as “definite,” in contrast to only 70 per cent of those supporting separation. This disparity suggests that while a segment of the population may lean towards independence, the commitment to remaining part of Canada is markedly more robust.
Bricker elaborated, “The motivation among those wanting Alberta to stay in Canada is significantly stronger. The separatist camp, although passionate, will need to mobilise every potential voter and likely more to compete effectively in this referendum.”
Regional Variations in Support
Support for both the referendum and for separation varies across Alberta’s major cities. In Calgary, only 14 per cent of residents support advancing a referendum, compared to 18 per cent in Edmonton and 27 per cent in the broader regions of the province. The numbers reflect a similar trend in attitudes towards separation: 12 per cent in Calgary, 16 per cent in Edmonton, and 27 per cent elsewhere in Alberta.
Political affiliations also play a crucial role in shaping opinions. Among supporters of the right-leaning United Conservative Party (UCP), 50 per cent advocate for remaining in Canada, while 40 per cent favour a referendum. Conversely, the NDP supporters overwhelmingly support staying in Canada, with only five per cent backing a referendum.
Shifting Motivations Behind Support for Separation
Interestingly, motivations for supporting separation have evolved over time. Currently, 61 per cent of those favouring independence cite a belief that Alberta would fare better outside Canada, while 39 per cent reference historical grievances. This marks a reversal from earlier sentiments where historical mistreatment was the primary driver of support for separation.
The changing motivations may reflect a broader reconsideration of the implications and practicalities of separation among the electorate.
Why it Matters
The diminishing support for Alberta’s separation raises significant implications for the province’s political landscape and its relationship with the rest of Canada. As the October referendum approaches, the data suggests a more cautious electorate, one that prioritises the stability of remaining within Canada over the uncertainty associated with independence. With 80 per cent of Canadians outside Alberta believing the province should remain a part of the country, this sentiment underscores the potential consequences of a divisive political movement. The results of the upcoming referendum could shape not only Alberta’s future but also the national discourse on provincial autonomy and unity in Canada.
