A recent Ipsos poll commissioned by Global News has unveiled a notable decline in support for Alberta’s separatist movement, with only 19 per cent of Albertans expressing a desire to hold a binding referendum on independence this autumn. The survey, conducted between May 28 and June 1, indicates that a significant 72 per cent of respondents would prefer to remain part of Canada, while the remaining participants were either undecided or chose not to respond.
Declining Support for Separation
The findings suggest that the momentum behind the separatist agenda may not be robust enough to propel it forward in the upcoming October referendum. When participants were queried about their intentions should a binding referendum take place, just 18 per cent affirmed they would vote for independence, a stark contrast to 72 per cent who indicated they would opt to remain within Canada. Only 9 per cent remained undecided or did not answer the question.
This 18 per cent support represents a significant 10-point drop from January when 28 per cent of Albertans indicated they were in favour of separation. At that time, the separatist group Stay Free Alberta was actively gathering signatures for a petition advocating for a referendum. However, since then, Premier Danielle Smith has included a question about separation in a broader referendum slated for October, which will also address issues of immigration and constitutional matters.
The Shifting Landscape of Support
Ipsos chairman Darrell Bricker noted that the latest data reveals a softening of support for separation as the prospect of an actual vote becomes more tangible. “It seems like the more that people contemplate this being real — the act of voting — we see the support for separatism softening,” Bricker observed during an interview with Global News.
Further analysis of the data suggests that those opposed to separation possess a more steadfast commitment to their stance. Among respondents who favour remaining in Canada, 90 per cent described their choice as “definite”, compared to only 70 per cent of those supporting separation. Bricker remarked, “What it shows is that people who really want Alberta to stay in Canada are really strongly motivated to vote for that.”
Regional Variations in Support
Support for both the referendum and the idea of separation is notably weaker in Calgary, where only 14 per cent of respondents back the referendum compared to 18 per cent in Edmonton and 27 per cent in the rest of the province. This pattern continues with separation support: just 12 per cent of Calgarians would vote to separate, versus 16 per cent in Edmonton and 27 per cent in other regions.
Political affiliation also plays a crucial role in shaping opinions. Among supporters of the right-leaning United Conservative Party (UCP), 50 per cent favour remaining in Canada, while 40 per cent support holding a referendum, and 41 per cent would vote for separation. This division is echoed within the UCP itself, as Bricker noted a significant level of support for remaining in Canada among party members.
NDP supporters overwhelmingly favour staying in Canada, with 92 per cent against a referendum, while 93 per cent would vote to remain. Even among undecided voters, a substantial 74 per cent lean towards remaining part of Canada.
Motivations Behind the Decline
The motivations of those supporting separation have shifted over time. The latest poll indicates that 61 per cent of proponents believe Alberta’s future would be better outside Canada, while 39 per cent cite historical grievances as their primary motivation. This marks a reversal from January, when a majority pointed to historical issues as their main reason for supporting separation.
In a broader context, most Canadians outside Alberta express a desire for the province to remain part of the country. Nationally, 80 per cent believe Alberta should stay, including 63 per cent of respondents from Quebec. Interestingly, Quebecers’ support for Alberta’s inclusion in Canada is notably lower than the national average, possibly reflecting their own provincial sensitivities regarding autonomy.
Why it Matters
The waning support for Alberta’s separatist movement not only highlights the complexities of regional identities within Canada but also underscores the challenges faced by those advocating for independence. The results of this poll could significantly impact the political landscape in Alberta and beyond, influencing future discussions around autonomy and national unity. As attitudes shift, the implications for both Alberta and Canada as a whole may shape the narrative of inclusivity and collective identity in the years to come.
