As the World Cup approaches, Mexico finds itself at a crossroads between celebration and chaos. With nearly 1 million fans expected to flood the country for 13 matches in the globe’s premier sporting event, the spectre of cartel violence looms large. Just months after a violent upheaval following the assassination of a prominent drug lord, questions arise about whether authorities can keep organised crime at bay during this time of heightened scrutiny.
A Nation on Edge
The recent death of Nemesio “El Mencho” Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, leader of the notorious Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), triggered a wave of violence that rattled the nation. Following his killing in February, the authorities in Jalisco swiftly declared a state of emergency as cartel militants unleashed a brutal campaign of retribution. Over a tumultuous two-day period, approximately 60 lives were lost, including both government agents and cartel members.
As Mexico readies itself to welcome the world, cities like Guadalajara—set to host four matches—are grappling with the shadows of their past. In the same region, a mass grave containing over 250 bags of human remains was discovered just last year. With the president’s office promising security through a deployment of 100,000 troops, citizens remain cautious. The ambitious Plan Kukulkan aims to unite federal, state, and local forces in a concerted effort to protect fans and visitors alike. Yet the spectre of violence remains, and many are left wondering if this is enough.
Strikes and Social Unrest
Compounding the threat of gang-related violence is the potential for civil unrest. Teachers across the country have announced plans for strikes, which could disrupt the tournament and create additional challenges for authorities. Last week, protests erupted in Mexico City as educators demanded salary increases and a reversal of pension reforms. Demonstrators took to the streets, toppling effigies of footballers and setting footballs ablaze, while riot police responded with tear gas and rubber bullets.
Chris Sabatini, a director at Chatham House, warned that the CNTE teachers’ union may leverage the attention surrounding the World Cup to voice their grievances. “If there is no resolution, the ball won’t roll,” they chant, signalling a firm commitment to protest throughout the event. As the tournaments draw closer, the potential for these strikes to escalate into major disruptions raises serious concerns about public order.
Cartels: A Calculated Restraint?
Despite the grim backdrop, some analysts suggest that the cartels may temper their violent activities during the World Cup, driven by self-interest. In fact, data reveals a 30% decrease in organised crime incidents in Guadalajara in the first five months of 2026 compared to the previous period. The stakes are high: the cartels are deeply entrenched in local economies and a surge in violence could deter tourists and harm their profits.
Tiziano Breda, a senior analyst for Latin America at ACLED, noted that increased violence would be counterproductive for the cartels. “More violence would make more people shy away from attending, and that will mean fewer revenues for these groups,” he explained. However, the risks remain, as the competition for tourist dollars could spark conflicts over lucrative opportunities linked to the tournament.
The Aftermath: A Storm Brewing?
While the atmosphere may seem relatively calm leading up to the tournament, experts caution that violence could escalate once the World Cup concludes. Internal disputes within the CJNG, exacerbated by El Mencho’s death and the absence of a clear successor, could lead to a resurgence of violent clashes. Breda warned, “Whatever is brewing in the CJNG after the killing of El Mencho will likely be left for after the World Cup has finished.”
As the international spotlight fades, the potential for a return to chaos remains a real concern. The influx of cash generated by the tournament could also ignite fierce competition among cartel factions, creating a powder keg that may explode once the celebrations are over.
Why it Matters
The World Cup is not just a sporting event; it is a critical moment for Mexico, a nation at the mercy of both its cultural pride and the pervasive grip of organised crime. The eyes of the world will be on the country, and while the government is keen to present a safe and welcoming environment, the underlying tensions could lead to consequences that echo far beyond the final whistle. The stakes are high, and the world will be watching to see how Mexico navigates this precarious moment in its history.
