Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, has defied the odds in his quest for the governorship of California, progressing from a mere 3% in the polls to securing a place in the general election. This political resurrection not only highlights Becerra’s resilience but also sets the stage for a historic moment: should he triumph in November, he would become California’s first Latino governor since 1875.
Early Struggles and a Shifting Landscape
Becerra’s campaign faced significant challenges right from the start. Initially, he lagged behind prominent contenders such as former congressman Eric Swalwell, ex-congresswoman Katie Porter, and billionaire activist Tom Steyer. His polling numbers were disheartening, consistently resting around 3% as late as March. Political analysts observed a palpable shift in the Democratic electorate, with many voters yearning for assertive leaders akin to Governor Gavin Newsom, who had emerged as a vocal opponent of former President Donald Trump.
The Democratic primary’s crowded nature posed a real threat; concerns grew that a splintered vote might allow two Republican candidates to dominate the primaries, potentially eliminating Democrats from the general election entirely. The chair of the California Democratic Party, Rusty Hicks, even urged candidates without a viable path—like Becerra—to withdraw, fearing a scenario where no Democrat would appear on the ballot for governor.
Compounding Becerra’s woes, he was unable to qualify for a significant debate at the University of Southern California, which ultimately did not take place due to backlash over the lack of diversity among the invited candidates. This setback dampened his already tepid campaign momentum.
The Turning Point
Becerra’s fortunes shifted dramatically in April when allegations of sexual misconduct against Swalwell rocked the race. Swalwell, who had been a strong contender, quickly withdrew from the race, leaving a considerable void in the Democratic field. Becerra capitalised on this unexpected opening, swiftly climbing the polls as voters sought a familiar alternative.
Christian Grose, a political science professor at the University of Southern California, noted that Becerra’s established reputation and experience made him a logical choice for many voters seeking stability in a tumultuous political environment. “He had the resume. He was known to voters. So, he was an alternative to turn to that made sense,” Grose remarked.
As Becerra surged, apprehensions about the possibility of a Republican-dominated primary resurfaced, prompting centrist and moderate Democrats to rally behind him. This coalition further propelled his campaign, while left-leaning voters began to gravitate towards Steyer.
Connecting with Voters
Throughout his campaign, Becerra has effectively woven his personal narrative into his political platform. As the son of Mexican immigrants, he has endeavoured to resonate with Latino voters, particularly in an atmosphere where immigration policy remains a contentious issue. His background and life experiences have struck a chord, especially among those who view him as relatable.
Polling data from a pre-primary survey revealed that approximately 37% of Latino voters were inclined to support Becerra, outpacing his Republican rivals, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton. Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist focused on Latino demographics, asserted, “I think he was just the right person, the right time, the right profile.”
This sentiment was echoed by voters who appreciated Becerra’s relatable working-class background. Dwayne Murphy, an Amazon delivery worker from Irvine, expressed his support, stating that Becerra’s commitment to working-class issues resonated deeply with him and others seeking a path to homeownership.
Awaiting the Final Count
As California’s slow ballot-counting process continues, with an estimated 3 million votes still to be tallied, the identity of Becerra’s opponent in the general election remains uncertain. Whether he faces Hilton or Steyer, one thing is clear: Becerra’s campaign has captured attention and revitalised hope among many voters.
In a recent video message, he declared, “California, we’re just getting started. Let’s hit the ground running. Let’s go win this thing.” His determination signals a new chapter for his campaign and possibly for California’s political landscape.
Why it Matters
Becerra’s remarkable turnaround not only illustrates the unpredictable nature of political campaigns but also underscores the importance of personal narratives in connecting with voters. His journey from a struggling candidate to a frontrunner for governorship reflects broader trends within the Democratic Party, as it grapples with identity, leadership, and the urgent need to galvanise its base in an increasingly polarized political environment. The outcome of this election will not only shape California’s future but could also serve as a bellwether for national political dynamics heading into the 2024 elections.