As Makerfield gears up for its byelection on Thursday, the battle lines are drawn, with tactical voting emerging as a potential game changer for Labour’s Andy Burnham. With left-leaning voters showing a willingness to unite against the Reform UK party, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
The Tactical Landscape
Polling indicates that support from Green and Liberal Democrat voters could be crucial in helping Burnham secure victory. A recent survey by Opinium revealed that more than half of those who identified as Green or Lib Dem voters in a general election are now backing Burnham in the byelection. This coalition of progressive voters might just be the key to halting the Reform party’s advance.
However, it’s a different story on the right. While Burnham’s supporters are rallying together, the same cannot be said for those backing Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party. Only about a third of Restore voters are willing to switch allegiance to Reform’s candidate, Robert Kenyon. This reluctance could significantly impact the overall vote distribution.
Polling Insights and Voter Dynamics
At the last general election in July 2024, the Liberal Democrats captured 7% of the vote while the Greens took 4.5%. This combined total surpasses Labour’s current narrow lead in the polls. Nonetheless, recent council elections in Wigan showed the Greens and Lib Dems trailing, with voting intentions for the byelection suggesting even lower figures.
Rob Ford, a political science professor at the University of Manchester, emphasised the stark tactical choice facing voters. “You’re not going to get a Green MP in Makerfield, you’re not going to get a Lib Dem MP in Makerfield,” he stated. “So it’s really obvious what you’ve got to do.” He added that Burnham’s popularity in Manchester gives him the edge, although he cautioned that victory is not guaranteed.
On the Reform side, Ford noted that their campaign seems designed to attract voters who are dissatisfied with mainstream politics. This strategy could further complicate the voting dynamics in Makerfield.
Misinformation and Voter Sentiment
As the byelection approaches, misinformation is becoming an alarming trend. Research from the Social Market Foundation (SMF) revealed that misleading posts on local Facebook groups have quadrupled during the campaign, with fake accounts disseminating false narratives, including AI-generated imagery that distorts the reality of the political landscape.
Despite these challenges, Burnham remains a popular figure in Greater Manchester. However, national polling from Ipsos indicates a decline in his overall favourability, with 26% of the public viewing him positively compared to 33% unfavourably—a drop of 7% since May.
The Stakes Ahead
As the final days of campaigning unfold, Burnham leads narrowly, but the situation remains fluid. According to James Crouch from Opinium, Labour’s five-point lead is precariously small compared to Restore Britain’s current vote share. This suggests that a fragmented anti-Labour vote could jeopardise Burnham’s chances, paving the way for future challenges.
Political commentator Peter Kellner highlighted the broader implications of the Makerfield byelection. “This is not just about Makerfield,” he stated. “In upcoming elections, we may witness two distinct contests—one on the left and one on the right.” What unfolds in Makerfield could serve as a precursor to the political landscape that awaits in future general elections.
Why it Matters
The outcome of the Makerfield byelection is more than just a local affair; it could signal a shift in the dynamics of British politics. The effectiveness of tactical voting among progressive voters may redefine how parties strategise in future elections, especially in a landscape where multiple candidates vie for attention in both left and right camps. As voters head to the polls, their choices will resonate well beyond Makerfield, potentially shaping the future of political engagement in the UK.
