Canada’s population experienced a decline of approximately 55,000 individuals in the first quarter of 2026, marking the third consecutive quarterly drop. This downturn is largely attributed to the federal government’s revised immigration strategies aimed at reducing the influx of temporary residents. As of April 1, 2026, the total population stood at 41.4 million, a decrease from the 41.6 million recorded a year earlier, according to recent estimates from Statistics Canada.
Temporary Residents on the Decline
Statistics Canada reported a significant reduction in the number of temporary residents, which fell by around 118,000, equating to a 4.4 per cent decrease over three months. This brings the current count of temporary residents to 2.56 million, representing 6.1 per cent of the overall population. The peak for these residents was seen in late 2024, when their numbers reached 3.15 million, or 7.6 per cent of the population.
The surge in temporary residents between 2022 and 2024 was driven by the previous Liberal government’s attempts to address job vacancies as pandemic-related restrictions eased. However, this influx triggered a backlash from Canadians, who connected the rising number of newcomers to issues such as housing affordability and other societal concerns.
In response to these challenges, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government eventually modified its immigration policies in 2024 and 2025, making it more challenging for international students and temporary foreign workers to enter and remain in Canada.
Shifting Immigration Targets
The current administration aims to reduce the number of temporary residents to 5 per cent of the total population by the end of 2027. The latest quarterly decline is a direct consequence of these updated immigration targets. Statistics Canada has cautioned that the figures regarding temporary residents are estimates and suggested there may be “more pronounced upward changes” in the near future, noting that rapid changes in migration policies could lead to revised figures.
The report highlighted that both the number of work and study permit extensions has risen, while processing times at the federal immigration department have lengthened. These factors contribute to the fluctuations in the temporary resident count, reflecting a complex and evolving immigration landscape.
Permanent Residency Admissions See a Sharp Drop
In tandem with the decrease in temporary residents, the number of permanent resident admissions has also plummeted. From January to April 2026, approximately 83,149 individuals were granted permanent residency, a 20.2 per cent decline compared to the same period in 2025. The federal government’s target for permanent residency admissions currently stands at 380,000 annually, which constitutes just under 1 per cent of the total population.
Analysts have indicated that the scaled-back immigration targets are significantly impacting economic indicators. As noted by Don Drummond and Parisa Mahboubi from the C.D. Howe Institute, achieving sustainable economic growth under moderate immigration levels necessitates improved productivity, higher labour force participation, and increased working hours.
Economic Implications and Demographic Shifts
Prime Minister Mark Carney has echoed these sentiments, linking the Canadian economy’s recent downturn—evident in two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product—to the government’s immigration policy adjustments. Additionally, the country faces various economic challenges, including stringent U.S. tariffs affecting key industrial sectors.
Statistics Canada’s latest report also observed that the natural population change, which reflects the difference between births and deaths, was nearly stagnant in the first quarter of 2026, with 155 more deaths than births. The agency indicated that winter months typically result in fewer births and a higher mortality rate. While Canada has historically not experienced negative population growth on an annual basis, forecasts suggest this could change. Bank of Montreal’s senior economist Robert Kavcic predicts that the natural population change may turn negative for the first time in 2028, a shift poised to have substantial economic consequences.
Why it Matters
The ongoing decline in Canada’s population, driven by stringent immigration policies, poses significant challenges for the country’s economic growth and demographic stability. As the nation grapples with these shifts, a decrease in the workforce could lead to an increased burden on social services and a potential slowdown in economic development. Understanding and addressing these demographic changes will be crucial for policymakers as they navigate the complexities of immigration and its broader implications for Canadian society.
