The political landscape in the UK is poised for a seismic shift following the upcoming Makerfield by-election, where Labour’s Andy Burnham is vying for a return to Parliament. Should he clinch victory, speculation is rife about how swiftly he could ascend to the role of Prime Minister, potentially even displacing Keir Starmer within a matter of days.
The Path to Leadership
The process of challenging a sitting Labour leader is dictated by rigid party rules. To mount a leadership bid, an MP must secure the backing of at least 20% of the parliamentary party, which currently translates to endorsements from 81 MPs, alongside support from 5% of local branches or three party-affiliated groups, including at least two unions.
However, if a sitting leader faces a challenge, they automatically qualify for the members’ vote without needing to gather nominations. This crucial detail could drastically alter the timeline of Burnham’s ascension, should circumstances unfold in his favour.
Scenarios for Burnham’s Rise
Instant Coronation Scenario
In an ideal scenario for Burnham, he emerges victorious in Makerfield, and Keir Starmer opts to resign—perhaps prompted by overwhelming pressure from senior cabinet ministers threatening to resign en masse. If no other contenders emerge, Burnham’s path to leadership could be expedited significantly. The Labour National Executive Committee (NEC) would then set a swift timetable for the leadership contest, potentially allowing Burnham to take office in days rather than weeks.
The Gradual Transition
Should Starmer agree to a longer transition period, perhaps to fulfil commitments such as attending the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, the timeline could extend. Though Starmer has publicly committed to fighting any leadership challenge, an overwhelming show of support for Burnham from Labour MPs could sway him. Should this scenario develop, Burnham might still assume leadership before Parliament’s recess in July, but the timeline would remain uncertain.
Full Contest: The Long Game
If other challengers, notably Wes Streeting, enter the fray, the situation becomes more complex. Streeting has indicated his intention to contest the leadership and has garnered support from several MPs. Should he, or any other candidate, gather the necessary nominations, a full contest would ensue. The NEC would determine the timetable, which could extend from several weeks to a few months, depending on the urgency Labour officials deem necessary.
In previous leadership contests, the NEC has shown flexibility. In 2020, they allowed a three-month window for the leadership election, while a more recent deputy leadership contest was compressed to just over six weeks. Given the gravity of selecting a new Prime Minister, there is potential for a faster process, but officials will also want to ensure a thorough vetting of candidates.
The Stakes
As the Makerfield by-election approaches, all eyes are on Burnham. His success could trigger a leadership contest that reshapes the future of the Labour Party and the UK government. The implications are profound, not just for Labour but for the political landscape at large, as Burnham has the potential to energise a party in search of direction and purpose.
Why it Matters
The outcome of the Makerfield by-election could be a pivotal moment in British politics. If Burnham’s ascent is swift, it may signal a radical shift in Labour’s trajectory and challenge the status quo established under Starmer’s leadership. In a time of political volatility, the choice of a new Prime Minister could redefine the party’s policies and priorities, influencing the UK’s direction for years to come. The stakes are high, and the political chess game is only just beginning.
